CSIRO PUBLISHING www.publish.csiro.au/journals/fpb Functional Plant Biology, 2004, 31, 1043–1059 Review: A critical overview of model estimates of net primary productivity for the Australian continent Stephen H. Roxburgh A,B,H , Damian J. Barrett A,F , Sandra L. Berry A,B , John O. Carter A,D , Ian D. Davies A,B , Roger M. Gifford A,C , MikoU. F. Kirschbaum A,E , Bevan P. McBeth A,B , Ian R. Noble A,B , William G. Parton G , Michael R. Raupach A,F and Michael L. Roderick A,B A Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Accounting, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. B Ecosystem Dynamics Group, Research School of Biological Sciences, Institute of Advanced Studies, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. C CSIRO Plant Industry, GPO Box 1600, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. D Queensland Department of Natural Resources and Mines, GPO Box 2545, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia. E CSIRO Forestry and Forest Products, PO Box E4008, Kingston, ACT 2604, Australia. F CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1666, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. G Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA. H Corresponding author. Email: Stephen.Roxburgh@anu.edu.au Abstract. Net primary production links the biosphere and the climate system through the global cycling of carbon, water and nutrients. Accurate quantification of net primary productivity (NPP) is therefore critical in understanding the response of the world’s ecosystems to global climate change, and how changes in ecosystems might themselves feed back to the climate system. Twelve model estimates of long-term annual NPP for the Australian continent were reviewed. These models varied considerably in the approaches adopted and the inputs required. The model estimates ranged 5-fold, from 0.67 to 3.31 Gt C y -1 . Within-continent variation was similarly large, with most of the discrepancies occurring in the arid zone of Australia, which comprises most of the continent. It is also within this zone that empirical NPP data are most lacking. Comparison with a recent global-scale analysis of six dynamic global vegetation models showed a similar level of variability in continental total NPP, 0.38 to 2.85 Gt C y -1 , and similar within-continent spatial variability. As a first tentative step towards model validation the twelve NPP estimates were compared with existing field measurements, although the ability to reach definitive conclusions was limited by insufficient data, and incompatibilities between the field-based observations and the model predictions. It was concluded that the current NPP-modelling capability falls short of the accuracy required for effective application in understanding the terrestrial biospheric implications of global atmospheric / climatic change. Potential methods that could be used in future work for improving modelled estimates of Australian continental NPP and their validation are discussed. These include increasing the spatial coverage of empirical NPP estimates within arid ecosystems, the use of existing high quality site data for more detailed model exploration, and a formal model inter-comparison using uniform driver datasets to investigate more intensively differences in model behaviour and assumptions. Keywords: continental, model, model comparison, NPP, rainfall-use efficiency. Introduction Net primary production is the net production of organic carbon by plants in an ecosystem, expressing, and often calculated as, the amount fixed in photosynthesis minus the Abbreviations used: DGVMs, dynamic global vegetation models; GPP, gross primary productivity; NBP, net biome productivity; NEE, net ecosystem exchange; NPP, net primary productivity; PRE, long-term annual average precipitation; PUE, precipitation-use efficiency (rain-use efficiency); VOC, volatile organic carbon. amount respired by plants as autotrophic respiration. Carbon compounds fixed in NPP provide the substrate and energy for heterotrophic organisms; therefore, NPP has been widely used as an indicator of ecosystem function (Schl¨ apfer and © CSIRO 2004 10.1071/FP04100 1445-4408/04/111043