Speleothem records of glacial/interglacial climate from Iran forewarn of future Water Availability in the interior of the Middle East Sevag Mehterian a, * , Ali Pourmand a , Arash Sharifi a , Hamid A.K. Lahijani b , Majid Naderi b , Peter K. Swart a a Department of Marine Geosciences, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, United States b Iranian National Institute for Oceanography and Atmospheric Science (INIOAS), Marine Geology Division, P.O. Box 14155-4781, Tehran, Iran article info Article history: Received 15 November 2016 Received in revised form 21 February 2017 Accepted 13 March 2017 abstract This study presents the first absolute-dated record of climate variability constructed by oxygen isotopes (d 18 O c ) from stalagmites in the interior of West Asia (Middle East) that encompass the Last Interglacial and early glacial periods (73,000e127,000 Before Present, BP) and early Holocene (6500e7500 BP). Variations in d 18 O c of two stalagmites from Qal'e Kord (QK) cave in central NW Iran show significant agreement and follow the solar insolation curve at 30  N closely, indicating the fidelity of these records as climate signals. The stalagmites capture millennial-scale Dansgaard/Oeschger stadial and interstadial events (19e25) observed in the North Greenland Ice Core Project (NGRIP). These observations point to the presence of a strong atmospheric teleconnection between the north Atlantic climate and the Middle East region. Variations in d 18 O c from QK cave also agree with the main features of Marine Isotope Stage 5 (MIS5), climate reconstructions from Soreq Cave, Israel, and Sanbao Cave in East Asia. This suggests propagation of a pan-Eurasian climate signal via interplay between changes in solar insolation, strength and position of the mid-latitude Westerly Jet, and strength of the Asian Monsoon. More negative d 18 O c from QK stalagmites are representative of wetter conditions when JJA insolation is at maximum, sup- porting a hypothesis that winter precipitation should increase in the Mediterranean storm tracks over the interior of West Asia when seasonality is at maximum. This record of water availability from central NW Iran across past glacial cycles suggests precipitation increased with higher solar insolation, an orbital configuration that will not return for another 10,000 years. © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction An area in western Asia, commonly referred to as the Middle East (or Near East), extends from the eastern Mediterranean Sea to the Iranian Plateau and the Arabian Peninsula and is one of the most climatically dynamic regions in the northern hemisphere. Major Eurasian synoptic systems that interact over this region are the northern hemisphere (subtropical) westerly jet (NH WJ), the Siberian anticyclone (SA) and the southwest Indian Ocean summer monsoon (IOSM), which is part of the larger African-Asian monsoon. The convergence of these systems and their response to external (solar insolation) and internal oscillations as well as anthropogenic forcings, such as soil erosion, desertification and increased greenhouse gases, make this region highly sensitive to abrupt shifts in climatic boundary conditions. Over the past several decades, there has been growing interest in small oscillations in temperature manifested as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) (Hurrell, 1995; Hurrell and Van Loon, 1997) and the relationship of the NAO to salinity, and the MOC in the North Atlantic, and precipitation across Europe and West Asia. Changes in precipitation patterns within southern Europe and the Middle East are similar during modern times and the Holocene; winter rainfall is diminished over the Middle East and southern Europe when the North Atlantic storm tracks are shifted poleward. On an inter-annual basis, dry spells over the Middle East are accompanied by northern shifts in storm tracks, producing wetter conditions in southern Europe. Increased greenhouse gas concen- trations and resultant warming may induce weaker Mediterranean storm tracks, and precipitation over the interior is expected to decrease during the next century based on model predictions and * Corresponding author. E-mail address: sevagmehterian@rsmas.miami.edu (S. Mehterian). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Quaternary Science Reviews journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/quascirev http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2017.03.028 0277-3791/© 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Quaternary Science Reviews 164 (2017) 187e198