Earthquake Risk Assessment for Romania Friedemann Wenzel 1 , Dan Lungu 2 1 Geophysical Institute, CRC 461, University of Karlsruhe, Karlsruhe, Germany, Email: friedemann.wenzel@gpi.uni-karlsruhe.de 2 Technical University of Civil Engineering, Dept. Civil Engineering, Bucharest,Romania, Email: lungud@hidro.utcb.ro Abstract Strong earthquakes in the Romanian Vrancea area have caused a high toll of casualties and extensive damage over the last centuries. The average recurrence rates make another strong event within the next 2 decades highly probable and provide a challenge to mitigate its impact. Romanian and German scientists from various fields (geology, seismology, civil engineering, operation research) organized themselves in the Collaborative Research Center (CRC) 461 ’Strong Earthquakes: A Challenge for Geosciences and Civil Engineering’ (Germany) and the Romanian Group for Strong Vrancea Earthquakes (RGVE) in a multidisciplinary attempt towards earthquake mitigation [17]. Key objectives of joint research activities are: • Understanding of the tectonic processes that are responsible for the strong intermediate depth seismicity beneath Vrancea. • Developing realistic models and predictions of ground motion. • Development of damage projections for the inner city of Bucharest based on seismological data, quantification of site effects and analysis of the built environment. • Detailed experimental study of the entire sequence relevant in earthquake engineering: source physics, wave propagation, site effects, soil-structure interaction, building performance. The Multidisciplinary Seismic Test Site located at INCERC, in the Eastern part of Bucharest serves as a focus to verify theoretical predictions by experimental data. Non-linear soil behaviour is a key issue in this context. • Development of novel approaches for mitigation of earthquake risk such as dynamic disaster management, new techniques for rescue and retrieval, retrofitting with fiber glass materials, rapid assessment of damage with photogrammetric methods and post-event shake maps. 1. Introduction Strong earthquakes in the Romanian Vrancea area have caused a high toll of casualties and extensive damage over the last centuries [1]. The average recurrence rates make another strong event within the next 2 decades highly probable and provide a challenge to mitigate its impact. Romanian and German scientists from various fields (geology, seismology, civil engineering, operation research) organized themselves in the Collaborative Research Center (CRC) ‘Strong Earthquakes: A Challenge for Geosciences and Civil Engineering’ (Germany) and the Romanian Group for ‘Strong Vrancea Earthquakes’ in a multidisciplinary attempt towards earthquake mitigation [17]. This brochure highlights recent achievements and specifies research objectives of the forthcoming years. Key objectives of joint research activities are: • Understanding of the tectonic processes that are responsible for the strong intermediate depth seismicity beneath Vrancea • Developing realistic models and predictions of ground motion • Prognosis of potential damage in case of a strong earthquake • Risk reduction by appropriate civil engineering concepts. Specific goals for the period 1999 to 2002 are: ⇒ Development of a consistent geodynamic model of the Neogene evolution of the Southeast Carpathians. This model should explain the specific features of the Vrancea seismicity (intermediate depth, small seismogenic volume, high activity) and provide boundary conditions for hazard assessment.