Section zyxwvu on Social Policy zyxwv WELFARE AND POVERTY IN THE EUROPE OF THE 1990s: SOCIAL PROGRESS OR SOCIAL DUMPING? zyx Peter E. Abrahamson Social policy in Europe is changing fundamentally from a system of public (government) support to a welfare pluralism, or a “welfare mix” supported by the private and public sectors and by voluntary agencies. The overall tendencies are privatization, decentralization, and debureauaatization. With the prospect of a single-market economy within the European Communities in zyx 1993, the fight against poverty in member nations may lead to “social dumping.” Two major problems are identified: the lack of guaranteed minimum income schemes in the so-called “Latin Rim” countries, and the effect on workers’ and citizens’ rights in an integrated Europe. The fight against poverty i d e s p i t e some efforts from the Commission of the European Communities-basically left to the individual member states. This portends a gloomy scenario for the poorer populations of Europe in the 1990s. The author examines welfare state types within clusters of countries: the modern (Scan- dinavia), the corporatist (Federal Republic of Germany), the residual (Britain), and the rudimentary (Latin Rim). The conclusion, unfortunately, is that future overall development of European welfare systems in the 1990s will probably be toward “Americanization,” with a move away from the modern, or Scandinavian, model toward a corporatist model for welfare policy. In this article I shall present some considerations on the future of social policy in Europe, with the hope of encouraging an examination of how we can influence the structuring of responsible, unified social policy in the years to come. Based on my research comparing national welfare systems in Europe and the United States, the discussion covers the present state of social reproduction and social policy in Europe and the future of social protection. I will describe three possible future scenarios of social policy organization. The only certain thing about the future is that we do not know anything about it. We are, however, free to speculate about it; and I find it important to attempt to do so for several reasons. It is scientifically meaningless to try to foretell the future or to predict future events based on present conditions. On the other hand, we have an obligation to concern ourselves with the future. The question is not, what will our future be? but rather,.what future do we want, and how do we achieve it? As expressed by German social philosopher Ernst Bloch: “Philosophy will have conscience of tomorrow, com- mitment to the future, knowledge of hope, or it will have no more knowledge” (1, p. 7). In order to find some instruments of guidance for present actions, we are obliged to speculate about the future. Also, (technical) predictions of the future can be useful in zy International Journal of Health Services, Volume 21, Number 2, Pages 237-264, 1991 zyx 0 1991, Baywood Publishing GJ., Inc. 231 doi: 10.2190/UN67-UWBW-DG0C-BBYG http://baywood.com