Vol.:(0123456789) 1 3 International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology (2021) 18:1465–1478 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-020-02942-3 ORIGINAL PAPER Integrated CA model and remote sensing approach for simulating the future development of a city R. Parchianloo 1  · R. Rahimi 1  · M. Kiani Sadr 2  · A. R. Karbassi 3  · A. R. Gharagozlou 4 Received: 7 May 2019 / Revised: 23 April 2020 / Accepted: 14 September 2020 / Published online: 27 March 2021 © Islamic Azad University (IAU) 2021 Abstract Population growth and industrial development have resulted in the physical development of cities and transformation of land use, especially in the areas surrounding the City. Reviewing these changes and predicting urban growth through modelling can help environmental managers in making more informed decisions. The purpose of this research was to simulate the expansion of urbanization and also its prediction in the future using the SLEUTH model in Zanjan. In this study, Landsat and IRS images were used 2001, 2002, and 2003. Then, slope data, land use, exclusion, urban development, transportation, and landing were introduced to the Cygwin using the controlled classifcation method, to implement the SLEUTH model. The results of model prediction indicated a signifcant increase will happen in urban areas by 38.1% over the next 22 years. The results also showed that with SLEUTH model calibration, the projected growth has a high scattering coefcient, in which case topography limits the development and expansion of the City. In contrast, the coefcients of spread and slope of play with points of 96 and 94 have considerably grown, respectively. The conversion of these lands into urban areas will slow down from now until the next 22 years, and this further development will be achieved along with the main roads of the province, as well as the actual results of the current situation will be the evidence for that. The results of this study can provide further study opportunities for planners and decision makers to consider preventive and controlling factors into strategic decisions. Keywords Land use · Geographic Information System · Satellite images · Zanjan Introduction Urbanization and land use changed from natural to agri- culture uses, and population growth has become a global crisis (Arsanjani et al. 2013; Bihamta et al. 2014; Nugroho and Al-Sanjary 2018; Goodarzi et al. 2016; Kuo and Tsou 2017). Urban areas are considered to be the most important economic, social, and developmental potential of any country. It also contributes to economic, health, and urban development which can be observed in urban and landscape usages (Bozkaya et al. 2015). Nowadays, urban areas are very much involved with urban wasteful human activities that have become a common challenge for all environmental planners, urban planners, and designers’ worldwide (Akin et al. 2015; Goldstein 2004; Schneider and Woodcock 2008; Subedi et al. 2013; Lambin 1997; Mallouk et al. 2019; San- damali Serasinghe Pathiranage et al. 2018; Li and Gong 2016; Razmjoo and Sumper 2019). GIS and remote sensing are the main components for designing and modelling the land use changes and predict- ing urban growth (Patino and Duque 2013; Arsanjani et al. 2013). Combined with other models and also with multi- criteria decision-making methods, they enjoy a special posi- tion in environmental planning and urban designing (Azizi et al. 2014; Goodarzi et al. 2016; Jat et al. 2017; Aburas et al. 2017; Kuo and Tsou 2017; Nugroho and Al-Sanjary 2018). In environmental science and geography, modeling is crucial for spatial variation studies in urban development Editorial responsibility: Zhenyao Shen. * R. Rahimi Razieh.rahimi@srbiau.ac.ir 1 Department of Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Natural Resources and Environment, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran 2 Department of Environment, College of Basic Sciences, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran 3 School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran 4 Faculty of Civil Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran