Global J. Environ. Sci. Manage. 5(4): 471-484, Autumn 2019
*Corresponding Author:
Email: vicky@nitmanipur.ac.in
Phone: +903 6106997
Fax: +903 85-2413031
Global Journal of Environmental Science and Management
(GJESM)
Homepage: htps://www.gjesm.net/
ORIGINAL RESEARCH PAPER
Future climate change impact on hydrological regime of river basin using SWAT
model
V. Anand*, B. Oinam
Department of Civil Engineering, Natonal Insttute of Technology Manipur, India
Hydrological components in a river basin can get adversely afected by climate change in
coming future. Manipur River basin lies in the extreme northeast region of India nestled
in the lesser Himalayan ranges and it is under severe pressure from anthropogenic and
natural factors. Basin is un-gauged as it lies in remote locaton and sufering from large
data scarcity. This paper explores the impact of climate change towards understanding
the inter-relatonships between various complex hydrological factors in the river basin.
An integrated approach is applied by coupling Soil and Water Assessment Hydrological
Model and Hadley Center Coupled Model based on temperature, rainfall and geospatal
data. Future representatve concentraton pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for
2050s and 2090s decades were used to evaluate the efects of climatc changes on
hydrological parameters. Both annual mean temperature and annual precipitaton is
predicted to be increased by 2.07
o
C and 62% under RCP 8.5 by the end of 21
st
century.
This study highlights that change in meteorological parameters will lead to signifcant
change in the hydrological regime of the basin. Runof, actual evapotranspiraton and
water yield are expected to be increased by 40.96 m
3
/s, 52.2% and 86.8% respectvely
under RCP 8.5. This study shows that water yield and evapotranspiraton will be most
afected by increase in precipitaton and temperature in the upper and middle sub-
basins. Diferent region within the basin is likely to be afected by frequent landslides
and food in coming decades.
©2019 GJESM. All rights reserved.
ARTICLE INFO
Artcle History:
Received 11 April 2019
Revised 10 August 2019
Accepted 03 September 2019
Keywords:
Climate change
Hydrologic response units (HRUs)
Landuse/landcover (LULC)
Representatve concentraton
pathways (RCPs)
Soil and water assessment tool
(SWAT)
ABSTRACT
DOI: 10.22034/gjesm.2019.04.07
NUMBER OF REFERENCES
35
NUMBER OF FIGURES
9
NUMBER OF TABLES
7
Note: Discussion period for this manuscript open untl January 1, 2020 on GJESM website at the “Show Artcle.