AKSIOMA: Jurnal Program Studi Pendidikan Matematika ISSN 2089-8703 (Print) Volume 12, No. 2, 2023, 1800-1811 ISSN 2442-5419 (Online) DOI: https://doi.org/10.24127/ajpm.v12i2.6545 1800| KEMAMPUAN PROBABILISTIC THINKING PESERTA DIDIK SMP DALAM MATERI PELUANG Atika Defita Sari 1* , Dadan Dasari 2 , Nanang Priatna 3 , Tatang Herman 4 1,2,3,4 Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, Bandung, Indonesia 1 UPT SMP Negeri 4 Tambang, Kampar, Indonesia *Corresponding author. Universitas Pendidikan Indonesia, 40154, Bandung, Indonesia E-mail: atikasari42@upi.edu 1*) dasari@upi.edu 2) nanang_priatna@upi.edu 3) tatangherman@upi.edu 4) Received 28 November 2022; Received in revised form 28 April 2023; Accepted 03 June 2023 Abstrak Kemampuan probabilistic thinking merupakan kemampuan siswa berpikir dalam menanggapi berbagai masalah probabilistic yaitu masalah yang mengandung ketidakpastian. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan tingkat kemampuan probabilistic thinking siswa berdasarkan kemampuan matematis (KM) dan ditinjau melalui tiga konstruksi. Subjek penelitian ini merupakan 29 orang siswa SMP kelas IX di Kabupaten Kampar, Riau, Indonesia yang telah mempelajari materi peluang. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif deskriptif yang menggunakan metode studi kasus. Data penelitian ini diperoleh menggunakan dua jenis intrumen yaitu peneliti sebagai instrumen utama serta instrumen pendukung berdasarkan hasil tes kemampuan responden (TKR) dan pedoman wawancara, dengan menggunakan triangulasi metode sebagai teknik pemeriksaan keabsahan data. Pada penelitian ini diperoleh bahwa siswa dengan KM rendah memiliki tingkat probabilistic thingking pada level 1-3 yang cenderung masih menggunakan pemikiran subjektif dalam menjawab permasalahan probabilistik, berbeda dengan siswa yang memiliki KM sedang dan tinggi sudah mulai menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif. Sehingga, level probabilistic thinking siswa beragam tergantung KM, pemahaman konsep terkait materi peluang, pengalaman, keyakinan dan penggunaan serta pemahaman terkait bahasa matematis. Kata kunci: Masalah probabilistik; probabilistic thinking; tingkatan probabilistic thinking. Abstract Probabilistic thinking is the ability of students to think in response to various probabilistic problems, namely problems that contain uncertainty. This study aims to describe the level of students' probabilistic thinking ability based on mathematical ability (KM) and reviewed through three constructs. The subjects of this study were 29 grade IX junior high school students in Kampar Regency, Riau, Indonesia who had studied probability material. This research is a descriptive qualitative research using case study method. The research data was obtained using two types of instruments, namely the researcher as the main instrument and supporting instruments based on the results of the respondent's ability test (TKR) and interview guidelines, using the triangulation method as a technique for checking the validity of the data. In this study, it was found that students with low KM had a level of probabilistic thinking at levels 1-3 which tended to still use subjective thinking in answering probabilistic problems, in contrast to students who had medium and high KM who had started using a quantitative approach. Thus, students' probabilistic thinking levels vary depending on KM, understanding of concepts related to material opportunities, experiences, beliefs and use and understanding related to mathematical language. Keywords: Leveling of probabilistic thinking; probabilistic problem; probabilistic thinking This is an open access article under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License