Renewable Energy 221 (2024) 119753 Available online 29 November 2023 0960-1481/© 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Implications of a smart grid-integrated renewable distributed generation capacity expansion strategy: The case of Iraq Qusay Hassan a, * , Anees A. Khadom b , Sameer Algburi c , Ali Khudhair Al-Jiboory a , Aws Zuhair Sameen d , Mohamed Ayad Alkhafaji e , Haitham A. Mahmoud f , Emad Mahrous Awwad g , Hameed B. Mahood h , Hussein A. Kazem i , Hayder M. Salman j , Marek Jaszczur k a Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Diyala, Diyala, Iraq b Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Diyala, Diyala, Iraq c College of Engineering, Al-Kitab University, Kirkuk, Iraq d College of Medical Techniques, Al-Farahidi University, Baghdad, Iraq e College of Technical Engineering, National University of Science and Technology, Dhi Qar, Iraq f Department of Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia g Department of Electrical Engineering, College of Engineering, King Saud University, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia h Centre for Sustainable Cooling, School of Chemical Engineering, University of Birmingham, UK i Faculty of Engineering, Sohar University, Sohar, Oman j Department of Computer Science, Al-Turath University College, Baghdad, Iraq k Faculty of Energy and Fuels, AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: Electricity demand Renewable distributed generation Smart grids Policy stability energy infrastructure Capacity expansion ABSTRACT The rapid growth of electricity demand in Iraq has consistently outstripped the country’s electricity infra- structure, leading to frequent blackouts, especially during peak summer demand. With a heavy reliance on oil 93 % and gas 7 % for electricity generation, the nation is exposed to economic fuctuations associated with global oil prices and environmental impacts from burning fossil fuels. This study explores the implications of integrating smart grids and expanding renewable distributed generation capacity in the country’s energy system. Drawing upon the projection of the energy demand by 2035 across four scenarios (Business as Usual, Sustainable Development, High Growth, and Low Carbon), the study underscores solar energy, backed by abundant solar and wind energy, as a key player in the country’s renewable transition. However, challenges persist, including the need for technical expertise in renewable energy technologies, fnancing hurdles, and concerns about policy stability. With the country’s policies targeting 25 % renewable electricity by 2030 and the establishment of signifcant renewable projects, there tangible momentum. The results have drawn out a roadmap for an esti- mated addition of up to 10 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030 and 14 GW by 2035. In addition, strategies for distributed generation capacity expansion were highlighted, underscoring the crucial role of solar and wind energy and other renewables in the country’s sustainable energy future. 1. Introduction The electricity sector holds paramount importance within modern economies, constituting a linchpin for social and economic advance- ment. Recent decades have borne witness to an escalating global de- mand for electricity, propelled by factors such as population expansion, urbanization, and industrialization [1]. Nonetheless, conventional electricity production sources, exemplifed by fossil fuels, are fnite and engender signifcant environmental challenges [2]. Consequently, the world attention has progressively gravitated toward renewable energy sources as a means of fulflling burgeoning electricity requirements while curbing greenhouse gas emissions [3]. The incorporation of renewable energy into electricity grids has experienced substantial growth in recent years. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth trajectory in Iraq span- ning from 2000 to 2021 has been marked by volatility, predominantly shaped by political instability and armed conficts. Fig. 1 presents a year- * Corresponding author. E-mail address: qusayhassan_eng@uodiyala.edu.iq (Q. Hassan). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Renewable Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2023.119753 Received 28 April 2023; Received in revised form 21 November 2023; Accepted 26 November 2023