Global NEST Journal, Vol 15, No 3, pp 273-281, 2013
Copyright© 2013 Global NEST
Printed in Greece. All rights reserved
MODELING THE RELATIONSHIP AMONG ENERGY DEMAND, CO2 EMISSIONS
AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A SURVEY FOR THE CASE OF GREECE
HATZIGEORGIOU E. Energy Management Laboratory, Dept. of Environment
POLATIDIS H.* University of the Aegean
HARALAMBOPOULOS D. University Hill, Xenia Building, Mytilene 81100, Greece
Received: 06/08/12 *to whom all correspondence should be addressed:
Accepted: 09/04/13 e-mail: hpolat@env.aegean.gr
ABSTRACT
The purpose of this paper is to offer an initial presentation and classification of the methodological
approaches used to analyzing energy demand, related CO2 emissions and economic development
for countries, regions and subsequently to provide for an extended survey of related articles for the
case-study of Greece that identified 48 scientific publications. It was found that all three main
existent methodological analytical schemes, namely ‘Top-down’ models, Econometric methods and
Decomposition Analysis methods, have been applied to model energy, environmental and macro-
economic variables for Greece. Specific application areas included sectoral (industrial, transport,
tourism, manufacturing, residential and electricity) energy demand and related CO2 emissions,
energy prices and energy taxation. The paper culminates to a comprehensive comparison of
employed methods and obtained results for Greece and conclusions.
KEYWORDS: Energy demand, CO2 emissions, Economic development, Survey, Greece.
INTRODUCTION
As a fundamentally empirical activity, the practice of modeling of the relationship among energy use,
CO2 emissions and economic development is necessarily a synthesis of data and methods
(Greening et al., 2007). To this end, particular quantitative methodological tools and models
appeared in the scientific literature in the late 70s, early 80s.
The objective of this article is to provide for an initiatory overview and categorization of the
methodologies used in this area, and a survey and a first round comparison of relevant studies for
the case of Greece. There is a multi-dimensional need for this review paper:
There emerges an urgent need for current economic recession to be analyzed and accordingly
tackled in order for Greece to be back on track towards a sustainable state form an economic,
energy and environmental point of view.
Greece has ratified the Kyoto Protocol and is in the process of assessing its course regarding
greenhouse gas emissions under the post-Kyoto procedures.
According to the Ministry of Development of Greece, at the end of 2020 CO2 emissions will
surpass the 1990 level by 68% leading the country to an unsustainable state form an
environmental point of view (YPAN, 2004). Nevertheless, recent severe economic recession has
significantly affected energy consumption and it would be expected that new scenarios for CO2
emissions will be set at lower levels.
Energy intensity has been decreased by 13% for 1980-2005, indicating improvements in energy
efficiency and a shift from industry towards services, which are typically less energy intensive
(YPAN, 2004).
Under the 1980–2009 period, structural changes in the Greek energy sector (e.g. the penetration
of natural gas in the electricity generation and the building sector) and economic reforms
programmes (e.g. Community Support Framework I, II and III) have occurred, whereas the
National Strategic Reference Framework is currently under progress.