Meteorol Atmos Phys 92, 33–43 (2006) DOI 10.1007/s00703-005-0136-9 India Meteorological Department, Pune, India Empirical prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall with different lead periods based on global SST anomalies D. S. Pai and M. Rajeevan With 3 Figures Received July 5, 2004; revised September 28, 2004; accepted January 20, 2005 Published online: September 15, 2005 # Springer-Verlag 2005 Summary The main objective of this study was to develop empirical models with different seasonal lead time periods for the long range prediction of seasonal (June to September) Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). For this purpose, 13 predictors having significant and stable relationships with ISMR were derived by the correlation analysis of global grid point seasonal Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) anoma- lies and the tendency in the SST anomalies. The time lags of the seasonal SST anomalies were varied from 1 season to 4 years behind the reference monsoon season. The basic SST data set used was the monthly NOAA Extended Reconstructed Global SST (ERSST) data at 2   2  spatial grid for the period 1951–2003. The time lags of the 13 predictors derived from various areas of all three tropical ocean basins (Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans) varied from 1 season to 3 years. Based on these inter-correlated predictors, 3 predictor sub sets A, B and C were formed with prediction lead time periods of 0, 1 and 2 seasons, respectively, from the beginning of the monsoon season. The selected principal components (PCs) of these predictor sets were used as the input parameters for the models A, B and C, respectively. The model development period was 1955–1984. The correct model size was derived using all- possible regressions procedure and Mallow’s ‘‘Cp’’ statistics. Various model statistics computed for the independent period (1985–2003) showed that model B had the best pre- diction skill among the three models. The root mean square error (RMSE) of model B during the independent test period (6.03% of Long Period Average (LPA)) was much less than that during the development period (7.49% of LPA). The performance of model B was reasonably good during both ENSO and non–ENSO years particularly when the magni- tudes of actual ISMR were large. In general, the predicted ISMR during years following the El Ni~ no (La Ni~ na) years were above (below) LPA as were the actual ISMR. By including an NAO related predictor (WEPR) derived from the surface pressure anomalies over West Europe as an addi- tional input parameter into model B, the skill of the predic- tions were found to be substantially improved (RMSE of 4.86% of LPA). 1. Introduction The long range prediction of the seasonal Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has been one of the first targets of the tropical climate prediction research. However, for more than one century, the prediction for the ISMR has been mainly based on empirical models (Walker, 1914; 1923; Thapliyal, 1982; Gowariker et al, 1989; 1991; Hastenrath, 1995; Krishna Kumar et al, 1995; Navone and Cecatto, 1995; Singh and Pai, 1996; Rajeevan et al, 2000; 2004; Delsole and Shukla, 2002; Sahai et al, 2002; 2003 etc.). In spite of the in- herent problems in these empirical models such as epochal variation in the predictand-predictor relationship, inter-correlation between the pre- dictors, changing predictability etc., the main ap- proach towards the prediction of ISMR is still based on empirical models. This is because the alternate approach of prediction based on dynam- ical models has not yet shown the level of skill required to accurately simulate salient features of