UJM 12(1) 2023
UNNES Journal of Mathematics
http://journal.unnes.ac.id/sju/index.php/ujm
Implementation of state space method for forecasting the number of patients
with HIV/AIDS infectious diseases
Wiwik Wiyanti*
Universitas Matana, Indonesia
Matana University Tower, West CBD street, Kav RW1, Curug Sangereng, Tangerang, 15810
Article Info
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Article History:
Recived January 2023
Accepted April 2023
Published May 2023
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Keywords:
HIV, AIDS, state space,
forecasting, prediction
Abstract
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This research concerns about the implementation of the State Space method for
forecasting to the number of people with infectious diseases (a case study is the
number of people with HIV/AIDS) in the Indonesia. The research was conducted
from August 2022 to November 2022. The data obtained from kagle, namely new
cases of HIV/AIDS infection. In this research, HIV data from 1990 to 2019 was used
for forecast analysis. The forecasting method in this research is State Space
method. Predict of new cases will found in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 are
14095,14139, 14167 and 14184 respectively. The forecast analysis result obtained
that the mean absolute percentage error is 0,4%.
How to cite:
Wiyanti, W. 2023. Implementation of state space method for forecasting the number
of patients with HIV/AIDS infectious diseases. UNNES Journal of Mathematics.
12(1):56-64.
© 2023 Universitas Negeri Semarang
*Correspondence Address
E-mail: wiwik.chae@gmail.com
p-ISSN 2252-6943
e-ISSN 2460-5859