Trees, Forests and People 1 (2020) 100006 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Trees, Forests and People journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/tfp Impact of climate on ecology and suitable habitat of Garcinia kola heckel in Nigeria Onyebuchi Patrick Agwu a,∗ , Adama Bakayokoa b , Saka Oladunmi Jimoh c , Kangbéni Dimobe d,e,g , Stefan Porembski f a WASCAL Graduate Research Program on Climate Change and Biodiversity, Universite ´ Felix Houphoue t Boigny, BP 165, Abidjan 31, Côte d’Ivoire b Université Nangui Abrogoua, Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire and Centre Suisse de Recherches Scientifiques en Côte d’Ivoire(CSRS) c Department of Social and Environmental Forestry, University of Ibadan, Nigeria d West African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Competence Center, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso e Laboratoire de Biologie et Ecologie Végétales, UFR/SVT, Université Joseph Ki-Zerbo, 03 B.P. 7021 Ouagadougou 03, Burkina Faso f Institute for Biodiversity Research, University of Rostock, Germany g Institut des Sciences de l’Environnement et du Developpement Rural (ISEDR), Université de Dédougou, BP 176 Dédougou, Burkina Faso a r t i c l e i n f o Key words: Garcinia kola Multipurpose species Climate scenarios Climate model Bioclimatic a b s t r a c t Garcinia kola is an indigenous multipurpose tree species, with significant cultural value and medical benefits, commonly found in the tropical rain forest zone of West and Central Africa. The species has been reported to be over-used and are now classified as vulnerable species close to commercial extinction. Hence, requires immediate conservation action. This study assessed the impact of climate on habitat for cultivation of G. kola in Nigeria. Ecological niche modelling approach was used to estimate the current geographical range and predicts the future distribution of G. kola in Nigeria, using the nineteen (19) bioclimatic environment layers at a 30 ′secs resolution. Two climate models were used (HadGEM2-ES and CNRM-CM5) with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios as predictor variables for projections of the potential geographical range of this species for 2050 horizon. Results revealed that about 397,094 km 2 area, corresponding to 43.6% of Nigeria land surface, are currently suitable for cultivating G. kola. The future projections showed a significant decrease in area suitable for propagating G. kola under the RCP scenarios used in the two climate models. HadGEM2-ES predicts 27.2 and 26.1% loss of suitable habitats under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by 2050 while CNRM- CM5 projects 26.7 and 35.8% decrease for the corresponding RCPs. Furthermore, the HadGEM2-ES predicts that 149,365 and 159,384 km 2 corresponding to 16.4% and 17.5% of total land area will be suitable for cultivation of G. kola in Nigeria under RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. The model results showed that climate change would have significant influence on the future suitable habitat of G. kola in Nigeria and the species is more subservient in moist, humid area and some part of derived savanna zone in Nigeria. The results underscore the significant influences of climate change on the ecology of G. kola. Based on these results, immediate action should be initiated to conserve this valued species and secure their inherent agro-ecosystems services 1. Introduction Climate Change is an existential threat to human wellbeing because of its potential adverse impacts on natural resources that support hu- man livelihoods (Enete, 2004). All facets of socio-economic activities are equally vulnerable to climate change and variability. Some associ- ated climate impacts include extreme weather events, heavy rainfall, heat waves and severe droughts. These poses dire consequence on plant productivity and thus, leading to inadequate food supply (Agwu et al., 2018). For instance, agroforestry species which are considered as one of the most essential livelihood support services derived from the ecosys- ∗ Corresponding author. E-mail address: agwu.o@edu.wascal.org (O.P. Agwu). tem in tropical regions is reported to have been negatively influenced by climate change (Enete, 2004). Decline in rainfall regimes have been reported in West Africa (Dinar et al., 2006; Kotir, 2011). Rainfall is an important climatic param- eter that determines the temporal and spatial locations of plant species (Phillips et al., 2009). An understanding of the influence of these envi- ronmental factors and the manner in which they affect plant distribu- tion in Nigeria is critical to advance the knowledge required to conserve these species. Therefore, there is an urgent need to increase multipur- pose tree species population by identifying key ecological factors that determine their current and future availability. Also, there is the need to https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2020.100006 Received 24 February 2020; Received in revised form 7 June 2020; Accepted 8 June 2020 Available online 12 June 2020 2666-7193/© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license. (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)