Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ecological Indicators journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolind Climate-change threats to distribution, habitats, sustainability and conservation of highly traded medicinal and aromatic plants in Nepal Santosh Kumar Rana a,1 , Hum Kala Rana a,b,1 , Sailesh Ranjitkar a,c , Suresh Kumar Ghimire d , Chandra Mohan Gurmachhan e , Alexander Robert O'Neill f , Hang Sun a, ⁎ a Key Laboratory for Plant Diversity and Biogeography of East Asia, Kunming Institute of Botany, CAS, #132 Lanhei road, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China b University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China c World Agroforestry (ICRAF), East and Central Asia Office, Kunming 650201, Yunnan, China d Central Department of Botany, Tribhuvan University, Kirtipur, Nepal e Plant Research Centre, Department of Plant Resources, Jumla, Nepal f Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham 90328 NC, USA ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Biomod2 Climate change Conservation Ensemble species distribution modelling Medicinal and aromatic plants Sustainability ABSTRACT Climate change poses significant challenges to the conservation of highly traded prioritized medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) from the Greater Himalayas. It is therefore essential to understand, ‘how’ and ‘where’ the plantation of MAPs can be effectively implemented for dealing with conservation-related issues. However, the ensemble species distribution modelling (eSDM) approach could be best to determine the climatic space of six highly traded MAPs for plantation in Nepal. Meanwhile, the current suitability was projected to the future (2070; RCP 4.5) scenario using a global circulation model (GCM), BCC-CSM1.1. The model delineated climatic space of six highly traded MAPs in the highlands altitudinally ranging from 1800 to 4200 m a.s.l. (meter above sea level) with the core hotspot in the central region of Nepal. Under the current and future scenarios, Nardostachys jatamansi ‘Spikenard’ and Aconitum spicatum ‘Aconite’ are projected to have the highest (ca. 15% and 17%) and lowest (ca. 3% and 9%) suitable areas respectively. The climatic zone in the hilly region (ca. 3000 m) can be suitable for mixed cultivation of all six MAPs in combination with Paris polyphylla ‘Love Apple’ whereas, middle mountainous region (ca. 4000 m) is more suitable for Nardostachys jatamansi. Therefore, the appropriate climatic space of the highly traded MAPs suggests the great possibility of their mixed cultivation to combat the increasing pressure from international trade, thereby benefiting the local farmers or collectors. This approach is crucial for conceiving the adaptive measures for sustainable management concerning the conservation of the highly traded MAPs. 1. Introduction Medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) are an important part of the ecology, livelihoods, and cultures of the Greater Himalayas (Grytnes and Vetaas, 2002; Olsen, 2005). For centuries, both ethnographic and field studies have highlighted these relationships, including the eco- nomic value of MAPs for Himalayan-regional communities (Uprety et al., 2016; O’Neill et al., 2017). These economic values are quite evident in Nepal where the country’s annual harvest of 3.5 to 15- thousand tons contributes USD $3 to $35 million to the Nepalese economy (Vasisht et al., 2016; Pyakurel et al., 2017). A recent United Nations (UN) COMTRADE publication reported even higher monetary estimates for Nepalese MAPs with a 10770-ton export worth USD $60.09 million (Ghimire et al., 2016). The Government of Nepal has responded to these growing demands by funding research and devel- opment around 30 highly traded species (MoFSC, 2000; Rokaya et al., 2012). Their efforts have sought to involve the nearly 75% of Nepali households already participating in commercial collection households where MAPs contribute c. 50% to total annual income (Pyakurel et al., 2017). Unsurprisingly, these demands have placed severe pressures on MAPs populations across Nepal (Gao et al., 2019). The national strategy is needed to ensure sustainable markets around these plants and address future challenges posed to MAPs by global climate change (Rana et al., 2017). Global climate change has become a challenge for developing strategies that can potentially alter the habitat, distribution, ecology, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.106435 Received 21 July 2019; Received in revised form 9 April 2020; Accepted 20 April 2020 ⁎ Corresponding author. E-mail address: sunhang@mail.kib.ac.cn (H. Sun). 1 Author(s) contributed equally Ecological Indicators 115 (2020) 106435 1470-160X/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. T