Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference Jan Oliver Schwarz a, ⁎, Rixa Kroehl b,1 , Heiko A. von der Gracht b,1 a Aarhus University, Business and Social Sciences, Department of Business Administration, Haslegardsvej 10, 8210 Aarhus V, Denmark b Institute for Futures Studies and Knowledge Management (IFK), EBS Business School, Konrad-Adenauer-Ring 15, 65187 Wiesbaden, Germany article info abstract Article history: Received 10 November 2012 Received in revised form 7 September 2013 Accepted 13 September 2013 Available online xxxx Science fiction (SF) prototyping uses fictional stories about the future to investigate the implications of science and technology not yet feasible at present. Since such a setting enhances creativity and perception, it has been identified as a means to develop new products, services, and business models. Novelty starts with weak signals of change within an environment and leads to innovations. From a constructivist perspective, in which knowledge needs to be processed or “constructed”, weak signals of change are not perceived by the outside environment. Rather, they have to be conceptualized in a cognitive process. We use this theoretical perspective to illustrate the value of novels in identifying and cognitively conceptualizing weak signals. With the support of sense-making theory, we illustrate how novels contribute to comprehending novelty in two frames of reference: by broadening the perspective, enhancing the creativity, and increasing the sensitivity of managers/corporate decision makers to detect weak signals; and by ensuring that the customer comprehends the link of an SF prototype to a future product or service. Our theoretical considerations are illustrated by an example from the novel, Super Sad True Love Story, in which the SF prototype is part of a broader fictional story. © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Science fiction prototyping Weak signals Trend Novels Frames of reference Sense-making 1. Introduction Minor changes in the business environment can evolve into major trends or herald the next innovation and can therefore be decisive for the success or failure of a company [1]. Such modest developments are called weak signals because they are not immediately obvious and are difficult to identify [1]. Due to their potential impact, they play a considerable role in corporate foresight. Ansoff [2] first introduced the concept of weak signals and thus laid the basis for trend management [3]. Ansoff's [2] concept aimed at detecting indicators of environmental changes early that could lead to strategic surprises and events, which have the potential to jeopardize an organization's strategy. He described weak signals as external or internal signs, occur- rences, and developments too immature to precisely assess their impact or complete reactions [4]. A weak signal can also be perceived as an upcoming trend. However, how can companies benefit from detecting weak signals if we assume that the future cannot be predicted, it can only be shaped? What does this imply for organizations trying to detect and make sense of weak signals in their environment earlier than competitors in order to create and sustain competitive advantage? Furthermore, how can com- panies distinguish between significant and insignificant weak signals? From a corporate perspective, what makes weak signals attractive or worthwhile to invest in? And how can companies safeguard themselves from disregarding relevant weak signals and reduce blind spots? One challenge for companies appears to be how to link weak signals to the world of the customer, in respect to designing products and services. However, we cannot predict Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2013) xxx–xxx ⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +45 89 97895072. E-mail addresses: mail@joschwarz.com (J.O. Schwarz), rixa.kroehl@ebs.edu (R. Kroehl), heiko.vondergracht@ebs.edu (H.A. von der Gracht). 1 Tel.: +49 611 7102 2100; fax +49 611 7102 10 2199. TFS-17848; No of Pages 8 0040-1625/$ – see front matter © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Technological Forecasting & Social Change journal homepage: Please cite this article as: J.O. Schwarz, et al., Novels and novelty in trend research — Using novels to perceive weak signals and transfer frames of reference, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (2013), http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.007