© MAY 2020 | IRE Journals | Volume 3 Issue 11 | ISSN: 2456-8880
IRE 1702312 ICONIC RESEARCH AND ENGINEERING JOURNALS 163
Do Oil Shocks Matters For The Inflation Rate In
Bangladesh?
MOHAMMAD RASELAR RAHMAN
1
, MD. SHADDAM HOSSAIN
2
, MD. MAZNUR RAHMAN
3
,
DILRUBA YESMIN SMRITY
4
,
*LITON CHANDRA VOUMIK
5
1, 2, 3, 4, 5
Department of Economics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Bangladesh
*
Corresponding Author
Abstract-
Background/ Objectives:
In recent years oil prices have fluctuated extremely.
Bangladesh is an oil-importing country and it has
strong volatility of oil prices impacts on its economy.
Especially oil shocks have a crucial role on several
macroeconomic indicators mainly inflation rates in
Bangladesh. This paper estimates the effects of oil
price changes on inflation for Bangladesh.
Methods/ Statistical analysis:
In this paper, we use the co-integration approach and
vector error correction model to investigate the oil
shocks impacts on the inflation rate in Bangladesh.
Time series yearly relevant variables from different
sources are introduced on the model for the analysis.
The Stata and R-Studio software were applied in this
paper.
Findings:
The result shows that there is a negative relation
between the consumer price index in Bangladesh and
global oil prices. This is contradicted to the normal
belief but the short-run adjustment coefficient c1 is
statistically significant and the sign of the coefficient
is positive which means that the long-run
equilibrium is not stable when there are any shocks
in the short-run. For these results, the proper
initiative should take to subsides on the oil price to
the domestic market to make inflation consumer-
friendly. Another finding from the control variable
broad money supply which has positively influenced
the consumer price index and statistically significant.
Improvements/Applications:
This finding will encourage policymakers, monetary
authorities, and academicians to formulate more
supportive policies and strategies to respond to oil
price shocks more precisely.
Indexed Terms- Global oil price, Inflation,
Consumer price index, Unit root, Co-integration,
VECM.
I. INTRODUCTION
Oil price fluctuation does impact badly on inflation
cause the maximum world production of consumer
goods is directly or indirectly involved in oil. Such a
change is price can cause a greater impact on the
market mechanism. It can change the price of the
product. The price stability of the national economy is
one of the key matters of national well-being.
Maintaining various market price unpredictability for
goods and services allows getting constancy in output
and stock management. The further production
process is at risk when the price volatility rate is high.
In most cases central and reserve banks, targeting
inflation rate through different transmission channels
of monetary policy such as interest rate policy to affect
the real sector. In some countries, most often emerging
ones or those being transitory, cost inflation prevails.
In this case, various shocks affect consumer prices
rate. These are changes in budget spending,
dependence on the imported goods and services, tax
and fiscal policy, dependence on the currency rate,
monopolistic or oligopolistic (including cartels)
market structure make the national economy inelastic
and at the same time sensitive to negative shocks in
costs. Such disorganization of the market economy
may be even deepened when the country largely
depends on imported oil. Oil has diverse uses such as
transportation, energy production, consumer good
production, etc. So there is a possibility of an oil price