Copyright@ Amira Ibrahim | Biomed J Sci & Tech Res | BJSTR. MS.ID.004329. 19827 Research Article ISSN: 2574 -1241 A Comparative Study of Two Extreme Cases Hit Egypt in January 2008 and 2009 Using WRF Different Convective Schemes Amira Ibrahim* Doctor in Egyptian Meteorological Authority, Egypt *Corresponding author: Amira Ibrahim, Doctor in Egyptian Meteorological Authority, Egypt DOI: 10.26717/BJSTR.2020.26.004329 Received: February 24, 2020 Published: March 04, 2020 Citation: Amira Ibrahim. A Comparative Study of Two Extreme Cases Hit Egypt in January 2008 and 2009 Using WRF Different Convective Schemes. Biomed J Sci & Tech Res 26(2)-2020. BJSTR. MS.ID.004326. ARTICLE INFO Abstract Heavy rainfall associated with severe flash floods cause loss of life and property. Forecasting of these severe weather events is highly essential because of their impacts on infrastructure and life over Egypt. Sinai Peninsula and sometimes southern parts are more affected by frequent heavy rainfall during the last decade in January. Early warning of these events will contribute avoiding destructive effects. WRF model was run with three convective cumulus schemes (Kain-Fritsch, Grell-Devenyi and Betts-Miller- Janjic) to simulate rainfall during January 14-19 in 2008 and 2009 over Egypt. The run of the model was done based on two nest domains at horizontal resolution of 27 km for mother domain and 9 km for nest domain to establish the best scheme that simulates rainfall better than the other two schemes during the period of study over the country. After comparing rainfall from these convective schemes with corresponding daily-clim reanalysis, Grell among the chosen cumulus convective schemes was found to give better results compared to other cumulus schemes along the period of the study. Synoptic study of these two cases was conducted. It is found that the extreme rainfall events were due to amalgamation between tropical and mid latitudes pressure systems. Abbreviations: KF: Kain Fretch; GDAS: Global Data Assimilation System; GFS: Global Forecast System; NCEP: National Centre for Environmental Prediction; G3D: Grell 3D; BMJ: Betts Miller Janjic; GRADS: Grid Analysis and Display System Introduction Climate of Egypt Climate of Egypt is generally described as arid and semi-arid, characterized by hot, dry summers, mild winters and erratic rainfall [1]. Most parts of the country are occupied by the Sahara Desert, which represents the widest area of severe aridity over world (Domores and Tantawi). Rainfall in Egypt is very unususal, with nearly an annual average of 12 mm [2]. The mean annual rainfall is from 0 mm/year in the desert to 200 mm/year in the northern coast. Rain falls in the winter [3]. Most of Rain is concentrated on the northern part of the country. It is between 150 - 200 mm, and decreases gradually to the south reaching around 24 mm. The climate in winter (December-February) is cold, moist, mostly cloudy and rainy. The depressions of Cyprus are the most feature in winter, while in summer (June-August) it is hot, dry and no rain with clear sky. The low pressure of Indian monsoon and the Azores high are interacting alternatively, that if the Indian low is prevailing the high pressure goes back and vice versa. In spring (March-May) Khamasine depressions are associated with high temperatures, very dry and usually sandstorms. The depressions that are formed at Atlas Mountains and move easterly on the northern desert prevails in spring. In autumn season (September-November) the extension of Sudan low as inverted V shape trough is accompanied with upper air trough that prevailing and causing thunderstorms with heavy rainfall because of the generation of the humid air comes from the Red Sea In Egypt, heavy rainfall frequently occurs in many regions namely upper Egypt, eastern desert of Egypt, and Sinai Peninsula. The worst heavy rainfall in Egypt occurred in 2 November 1994 in Drunka Village (Assuit, Upper Egypt) and the 18 January 2010 in wadi El Arish (Northern Sinai) [4]. The Sinai region has an average annual rainfall of 80-100 mm (Enviromental Science Service Administration 1951-1960).