ZFW – Advances in Economic Geography 2022; aop
Open Access. © 2023 the author(s), published by De Gruyter. This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Franziska Sohns*, Dariusz Wójcik
Do they do as they say?
Analysing the Impact of Brexit on Relocation Intentions in the UK’s FinTech Industry
https://doi.org/10.1515/zfw-2021-0049
Received: 14. October 2021; accepted: 12. Dezember 2022
Abstract: This paper responds to Bathelt and Li’s (2020)
call for selecting more appropriate methods and improving
their rigour by evaluating the feasibility of using factorial
surveys to anticipate future relocation behaviour. By utilis-
ing a case study approach, focussing on Brexit and the UK
FinTech industry, the paper examines to what extent busi-
ness managers’ relocation intentions are driven by factors
similar to those known to drive actual relocation behaviour
and compares business managers’ relocation intentions
with their companies’ actual relocation outcomes. We use
a factorial survey conducted in 2018, which allows us to
quantitatively analyse the impact of different Brexit sce-
narios and selected company characteristics on business
managers’ likelihood to intend to relocate their UK busi-
ness unit (or some functions thereof ) to the EU and/or the
US. Additionally, we collected qualitative secondary data on
the actual relocation outcomes of the surveyed companies
in February 2022 by investigating online platforms, such
as LinkedIn, Companies House, and Crunchbase, as well
as company webpages. The results of this mixed-methods
approach highlight a significant variation in business man-
agers’ intentions, and the importance of geographical and
institutional proximity for relocation intentions and out-
comes. We show that business managers’ relocation inten-
tions are driven by factors similar to those known to drive
actual relocation behaviour, such as their perception of the
economic consequences of different Brexit scenarios, their
territorial embeddedness, as well as their nationality. Most
importantly, our findings indicate that, although factorial
surveys are only moderately accurate when predicting the
exact extent and destination of actual relocation, they are
highly accurate when predicting whether a company relo-
cates or not.
Acknowledgments: We would like to acknowledge all par-
ticipants of the “Regions in Recovery Global E-Festival”,
which took place from the 2
nd
to 18
th
of June 2021, for their
constructive comments that helped to finalize this article.
Moreover, we would like to thank the anonymous review-
ers whose constrictive comments helped to improve the
article.
1 Introduction
Climate change is altering weather patterns that were
perceived as predictable, the long-forgotten threat of an
armed conflict between the United States of America (US)
and Russia is suddenly looming again, and a global pan-
demic is sweeping around the globe, while the Fourth
Industrial Revolution is shifting the way we live and work
in ways difficult to fully comprehend. It increasingly seems
like what had been perceived as established patterns for
decades is rather temporary and increasingly unpredicta-
ble in nature. In such an uncertain world, anticipating the
future correctly and making well-informed decisions has
become an important comparative advantage not just for
economic but also for political actors. As representatives
of an applied research discipline, positioned right in-be-
tween economics and social sciences (Martin and Sunley,
2001), economic geographers have always been predestined
to make sense of the multi-layered and complex nature of
the world, aiming to contribute to the political debate by
offering policy recommendations in a timely and relevant
manner. As a result, “the discipline has adopted a toolkit
of diverse research methods over time” (Bathelt and Li,
2020:3), leading to significant methodological pluralism.
While methodological pluralism offers opportunities, such
as the ability to pursue a wider range of research ideas, it
also comes with challenges, such as the need to ensure rigour
in choosing adequate research methods and utilising them
correctly.
Well-established in social science (Hox et al., 1991),
with a recent application in economic geography (Neise and
Revilla Diez, 2018), factorial survey approaches, combining
elements of traditional survey research and behavioural
experiments into a single method, are one of the latest addi-
*Corresponding author: Dr. Franziska Sohns is an Associate
Professor in Economic Geography at Anglia Ruskin University,
East Road, Cambridge, CB1 1PT; E-mail: franziska.sohns@aru.ac.uk.
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5641-7433
Dr. Dariusz Wójcik is a Professor of Economic Geography at the
University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX1 3QY;
E-mail: dariusz.wojcik@ouce.ox.ac.uk