International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering (IJITEE)
ISSN: 2278-3075, Volume-9 Issue-5, March 2020
389
Published By:
Blue Eyes Intelligence Engineering
& Sciences Publication
Retrieval Number: E2252039520/2020©BEIESP
DOI: 10.35940/ijitee.E2252.039520
Abstract: Due to the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate
wind power prediction plays a major challenge to power system
operators for unit commitment and load dispatching. To predict
wind power production with great accuracy, wind speed
forecasting in different time horizons is gaining importance
nowadays. This paper explores the application of Adaptive
Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS) to forecast the wind
speed in Logan international airport, USA for one year in every
one hour time interval. ANFIS with different structures and
membership functions are trained to find out the best model to do
short term wind forecasting. Simulation with the best model is
performed in MATLAB and the results show that the three input
model with wind speed, direction and air pressure as inputs using
Gaussian bell membership function provides the smallest errors.
Keywords : ANFIS, Logan airport, MAPE, Wind speed
I. INTRODUCTION
As wind is intermittent in nature, Independent Power
Producers (IPP) need to forecast wind power upto a few hours
ahead with reasonable accuracy for proper scheduling of
electrical power in a power system[1]. Accurate prediction of
wind is necessary to help the Load Dispatch Centers to
manage the grid operations in an optimal fashion and power
trading. Because of high penetration of wind energy into
electric grids, bulk intermittent generation affects grid
security, system operation and market economics. Further,
deregulation of electric industry as well as power trading
increase the importance of accurate forecasting. Operation
and maintenance of wind turbine can also be planned based on
the information of wind data at the specific location. Different
techniques such as statistical methods, persistence method,
numerical weather prediction method, artificial intelligent
methods and hybrid methods[2] are used for accurate wind
forecasting. This paper focuses on wind speed forecasting in
Logan international airport by Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy
Inference Systems (ANFIS)[3], which is a combination of
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Fuzzy Inference
System (FIS). ANN has the capability of looking for patterns
Revised Manuscript Received on February 06, 2020.
* Correspondence Author
V.Vanitha*, Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Sri
Krishna College of Technology, Coimbatore, India.
Email:vvanitha55@gmail.com
D.Magdalin Mary,Department of Electrical and Electronics
Engineering, Sri Krishna College of Technology, Coimbatore, India.
Email: magdalinmary.d@skct.edu.in
G.Sophia Jasmine, Department of Electrical and Electronics
Engineering, Sri Krishna College of Technology, Coimbatore, India.
Email:sophiajasmine.g@skct.edu.in
Akhil Balagopalan, Department of Electrical and Electronics
Engineering, Amrita School of Engineering, Coimbatore, India.
Email: akhilb09cc@gmail.com
in the information presented to it and thus learns about the
system. FIS produces output by analyzing previous
experience. Self decision making capacity makes FIS suitable
for prediction purpose. Combination of ANN and Fuzzy logic
approaches perform better than individual ANN and Fuzzy
forecasts, and ANN-Fuzzy approach provides excellent
performance. When added with ANN, FIS acts as a feedback
and gains more experience and produces accurate
output[4][5].
II. METHODOLOGY OF PRESENT STUDY
In the present study, wind speed prediction based on fuzzy
logic and artificial neural network is used, which provides
significantly less rule base but also increased estimated wind
speed accuracy when compared to traditional fuzzy logic
alone. It involves the following steps:(i)Data collection (ii)
Data normalizing (iii) ANFIS structure selection (iv) Data
training and (v) Data testing. Fig.1 shows the flow chart of
methodology for the proposed study.
Fig. 1. Flow chart of the methodology.
A. Data Collection
Good Hourly average values of wind speed, wind direction,
air pressure and temperature have been used for the study
from MIT site.
The data was collected from a site that had a weather
monitoring system having sensors for the four parameters.
The hourly average values over a period of one year were
available for the study. The annual data obtained from the site
had missing and out of range values to the tune of 22% due to
poor site conditions and communication errors.
These deformities have been rectified by manual
extrapolation using the values at the nearest time step and the
refined data are used for generating the FIS system. These
measured data have been
averaged for every 30 min
interval.
Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System Based
Short Term Wind Speed Forecasting
V.Vanitha, D.Magdalin Mary, G.Sophia Jasmine, Akhil Balagopalan