Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 415–428, 2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-415-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Detecting anomalous sea-level states in North Sea tide gauge data
using an autoassociative neural network
Kathrin Wahle
1
, Emil V. Stanev
1,2,3
, and Joanna Staneva
1
1
Helmholtz Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
2
Research Department, University of Sofia “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Sofia, Bulgaria
3
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Sofia “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Sofia, Bulgaria
Correspondence: Kathrin Wahle (kathrin.wahle@hereon.de)
Received: 24 June 2022 – Discussion started: 29 June 2022
Revised: 8 November 2022 – Accepted: 29 December 2022 – Published: 2 February 2023
Abstract. The sea level in the North Sea is densely mon-
itored by tide gauges. The data they provide can be used
to solve different scientific and practical problems, includ-
ing the validation of numerical models and the detection
of extreme events. This study focuses on the detection
of sea-level states with anomalous spatial correlations
using autoassociative neural networks (AANNs), trained
with different sets of observation- and model-based data.
Such sea-level configurations are related to nonlinear
ocean dynamics; therefore, neural networks appear to be
the right candidate for their identification. The proposed
network can be used to accurately detect such anomalies
and localize them. We demonstrate that the atmospheric
conditions under which anomalous sea-level states occur
are characterized by high wind tendencies and pressure
anomalies. The results show the potential of AANNs for
accurately detecting the occurrence of such events. We
show that the method works with AANNs trained on tide
gauge records as well as with AANN trained with model-
based sea surface height outputs. The latter can be used to
enhance the representation of anomalous sea-level events
in ocean models. Quantitative analysis of such states may
help assess and improve numerical model quality in the
future as well as provide new insights into the nonlinear
processes involved. This method has the advantage of being
easily applicable to any tide gauge array without prepro-
cessing the data or acquiring any additional information.
1 Introduction
The dynamics of sea level in tidal basins are one of the
most addressed topics in physical oceanography. Theoreti-
cal prediction of tidal motion was pioneered by the applica-
tion of a Fourier analysis by Lord Kelvin (Thomson, 1880)
and later improved by Doodson (1921), who developed the
tide-generating potential in harmonic form. Analysis and in-
terpretation of tidal observations by Proudman and Doodson
(1924) enhanced the understanding of sea-level fluctuations
due to winds and changes in atmospheric pressure. The de-
velopment of numerical 2D storm surge models by Peeck et
al. (1983) and Flather and Proctor (1983) led to early warn-
ing systems for coastal flooding. With increasing computa-
tional power and the availability of satellite data, sea-level
predictions have been continuously improved. However, cur-
rent model predictions are not always perfect (Stanev et
al., 2015a; Sandery and Sakov, 2017; Staneva et al., 2016;
Ponte et al., 2019; De Mey-Frémaux et al., 2019; Jacobs et
al., 2021), which emphasizes the need for further understand-
ing of sea level.
A recent important evolution in predicting sea level in the
North Sea was achieved in the framework of the development
of the northwest European shelf forecasting system (e.g.,
O’Dea et al., 2012; Tonani et al., 2019) by enhancing the
model resolution to 1.5 km. Thus, dynamical features such
as coastal currents, fronts, and mesoscale eddies are better re-
solved, and the model results are improved, especially when
compared to high spatial–temporal resolution observations.
Satellite altimetry has added critical information in the
last 30 years (Madsen et al., 2015). Notably, different
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.