Article Reference Climate Risks and Their Impact on Agriculture and Forests in Switzerland FUHRER, J., et al. Abstract There is growing evidence that, as a result of global climate change, some of the most severe weather events could become more frequent in Europe over the next 50 to 100 years. The paper aims to (i) describe observed trends and scenarios for summer heat waves, windstorms and heavy precipitation, based on results from simulations with global circulation models, regional climate models, and other downscaling procedures, and (ii) discuss potential impacts on agricultural systems and forests in Switzerland. Trends and scenarios project more frequent heavy precipitation during winter corresponding, for example, to a three-fold increase in the exceedance of today’s 15-year extreme values by the end of the 21st century. This increases the risk of large-scale flooding and loss of topsoil due to erosion. In contrast, constraints in agricultural practice due to waterlogged soils may become less in a warmer climate. In summer, the most remarkable trend is a decrease in the frequency of wet days, and shorter return times of heat waves and droughts. This increases the risk of losses of crop yield and forage quality. In forests, the [...] FUHRER, J., et al. Climate Risks and Their Impact on Agriculture and Forests in Switzerland. Climatic Change, 2006, vol. 79, no. 1-2, p. 79-102 DOI : 10.1007/s10584-006-9106-6 Available at: http://archive-ouverte.unige.ch/unige:18433 Disclaimer: layout of this document may differ from the published version. 1 / 1