117 September 2023, Volume 2, Number 3 Research Paper Dynamics of Tobacco Use, Scenarios, and Control Policies Ahmad Haghiri Dehbarez 1* , Ali Mohammad Ahmadvand 2 , Amir-Bahador Morovat 2 1. Health Policy Secretariat, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran. 2. Department of Future Studies, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, Eyvanekey University, Eyvanekey, Iran. * Corresponding Author: Ahmad Haghiri Dehbarez Address: Health Policy Secretariat, Hormozgan University of Medical Sciences, Bandar Abbas, Iran. Tel: +98 (917) 7687318 E-mail: Hagheri@yahoo.com Background: A review of the tobacco control initiatives indicates that the evolution of tobacco control and public health into complex interconnected systems requires approaches and methodologies based on the dynamic nature of this environment. This study attempts to view tobacco control policies from the perspective of systemic dynamics. Materials and Methods: The research methodology is based on the stages of system dynamics. Results: Through the model’s analysis, two primary smoking control policies are proposed: First, a strategy focused on reducing consumption through enhanced awareness and ongoing monitoring via an active learning program, and second, enhancing the smoking cessation rate by establishing dedicated clinics and utilizing cultural approaches that condemn smoking. Conclusion: Using either a system dynamics approach or qualitative and descriptive methods, tobacco studies reveal no quantitative decision support system to measure the effectiveness of the policies guiding the development of this system. This gap inhibits the identification of the root cause of the problem and improves the behavior of essential variables with dynamic hypotheses. A fundamental issue in the development of any model is access to valuable and accurate data, a resource not readily and transparently available in Iran. A B S T R A C T Article info: Received: 22 Jan 2023 Accepted: 02 Feb 2023 Available Online: 01 Sep 2023 Keywords: Systems dynamics, Control policies, Tobacco Citation Haghiri Dehbarez A, Ahmadvand AM, Morovat A. Dynamics of Tobacco Use, Scenarios, and Control Policies. Tobacco and Health 2023; 2(3):117-128. http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/thj.2.3.1076 http://dx.doi.org/10.32598/thj.2.3.1076 Use your device to scan and read the article online [ DOI: 10.32598/thj.2.3.1076 ] [ Downloaded from thj.hums.ac.ir on 2024-01-20 ] 1 / 12