Price Synergy in Spot and Future Market: A Study on Nickel Trade at
MCX, India
Laxmidhar Samal
1*
and Sudhansu Kumar Das
2
1
Research Scholar, Utkal University, Odisha. and
Lecturer in Commerce, P.G. Department of Commerce, Baba Bhairabananda Autonomous Mahavidyalaya, Jajpur, Odisha.
E-mail: laxmidharsamal.ckl@gmail.com
2
Reader in Commerce, Department of Commerce, Sadhu Goudeswwar College, Jajpur, Odisha.
E-mail: drsudhansu24@gmail.com
*Corresponding Author
Abstract: The paper is an attempt to identify the dynamic relationship between
the spot and futures of nickel traded at MCX, India. The study is based on
secondary data for a period ranging from 2013 to 2020. Augmented Dicky-
fuller test and Phillip Perron test, Cointegration test, Granger causality test
and variance decomposition are the empirical methods used in the study. The
study confirms the existence of a long run relationship between the markets.
In long run, the unidirectional causal effect is found between the cash and
futures market of nickel whereas in the short run bidirectional causality is
observed. In the long run futures market of nickel influences, the price discovery
of the cash market whereas in the short run both markets influence each other
for price discovery. The futures market of nickel traded at MCX, India reflects
weak exogeneity in its cash market whereas the cash market of nickel reflects
exogeneity in its futures market.
1. Introduction
After lifting restrictions on commodity trading the futures market has been consistently showing strong
and steady growth. Producers, consumers, importers, exporters, speculators, and others are actively
participating for the advantage of hedging, price discovery, price risk management etc. MCX (Multi
Commodity Exchange) of India accounts for about 94 percent of the total market share. Besides
hedging, price discovery, and price risk management speculators also participate for profit (Eswaran
and Ramasundaram, 2008). Hence futures market reflects the expectations of all the market participants
(Park and Lim, 2018). Among other commodities, base metals are considered the backbone of industrial
production as it is used for manufacturing capital goods. Among other base metals nickel is the main
alloying metal used for the production of stainless steel. It is also used in electro-plating, coins, chemicals,
Orissa Journal of Commerce
Vol. 43, Issue 4, October-December 2022
ISSN: 0974-8482
© OJC India. All Right Reserved
URL: www.ojcoca.org
DOI: https://doi.org/10.54063/ojc.2022.v43i04.04
To cite this paper
Samal, L., & Das, S.K. (2022).
Price Synergy in Spot and Future
Market: A Study on Nickel Trade
at MCX, India. Orissa Journal of
Commerce. 43(4), 46-58.
Keywords
Futures, Cointegration, Nickel,
Causality, Price discovery
JEL Classification
C01, D53, G13, G14.
46 Orissa Journal of Commerce, 43(4) © 2022