Citation: Maroun, J.; Tienken, C.H. The Pernicious Predictability of State-Mandated Tests of Academic Achievement in the United States. Educ. Sci. 2024, 14, 129. https:// doi.org/10.3390/educsci14020129 Academic Editor: Christopher G. Bezzina Received: 14 December 2023 Revised: 17 January 2024 Accepted: 23 January 2024 Published: 27 January 2024 Copyright: © 2024 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ 4.0/). education sciences Article The Pernicious Predictability of State-Mandated Tests of Academic Achievement in the United States Jamil Maroun 1, * and Christopher H. Tienken 2, * 1 Manville Public Schools, Manville, NJ 08835, USA 2 Education Leadership, Management, & Policy, Seton Hall University, South Orange, NJ 07079, USA * Correspondence: jamilmaroun@mac.com (J.M.); christienken@gmail.com (C.H.T.) Abstract: The purpose of this study was to determine the predictiveness of community and family demographic variables related to the development of student academic background knowledge on the percentage of students who pass a state-mandated, commercially prepared, standardized Algebra 1 test in the state of New Jersey, USA. This explanatory, cross-sectional study utilized quantitative methods through hierarchical regression analysis. The results suggest that family demographic variables found in the United States Census data related to the development of student academic background knowledge predicted 75 percent of schools in which students achieved a passing score on a state standardized high school assessment of Algebra 1. We can conclude that construct-irrelevant variance, influenced in part by student background knowledge, can be used to predict standardized test results. The results call into question the use of standardized tests as tools for policy makers and educational leaders to accurately judge student learning or school quality. Keywords: standardized testing; education reform; education policy; educational assessment 1. Introduction It has long been known that the accurate interpretation and use of standardized test results to make decisions about student academic achievement in public elementary and secondary schools in the United States can be affected by psychometric design elements that result in irrelevant fluctuations in scores among different groups of test takers [1]. Factors that can lead to misinterpretation of, or patterns in, test results include mismatches between the selected content of the test and the subject area construct, unclear instructions, complexities in test items unrelated to the construct being measured, inappropriate testing conditions, mismatches between the test takers’ native language and the language used on the test, cognitive or physical disabilities of the test takers, adverse childhood experiences such as trauma, and biased or incorrect expectations or assumptions about the test takers’ anticipated responses [2]. Students’ existing background knowledge of topics included on standardized tests is another factor that produces variance and can predict standardized test results [3]. Ecological systems theory [4,5] and the construction-integration model [6] provide lenses from which to view where students gain background knowledge outside of school and how background knowledge influences standardized test performance. Like policy makers in over 40 other states in America, New Jersey education bu- reaucrats use the results from state-mandated high school mathematics tests to make determinations about various aspects of education in the state including: (a) the effec- tiveness of the high school principal, (b) the effectiveness of the high school assistant principal(s), (c) the effectiveness of the high school mathematics teachers, (d) whether a student is prepared for college, (e) whether a student is prepared for a career, (f) a student’s strengths and weaknesses in mathematics as explained on the standardized test student report, (g) whether the student can graduate high school, (h) whether a school is “failing” in the area of mathematics instruction, and (i) whether an entire school district is “failing” Educ. Sci. 2024, 14, 129. https://doi.org/10.3390/educsci14020129 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/education