Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Catena journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/catena Southward migration of the austral limit of mangroves in South America Marcelo C.L. Cohen a, ⁎ , Erika Rodrigues a , Denise O.S. Rocha a , Jaine Freitas a , Neuza A. Fontes a , Luiz C.R. Pessenda b , Adriana V. de Souza a , Vivian L.P. Gomes a , Marlon Carlos França c , Daniel M. Bonotto d , José A. Bendassolli e a Graduate Program of Geology and Geochemistry, Federal University of Pará, Av. Perimentral 2651, Terra Firme, 66077-530 Belém, PA, Brazil b University of São Paulo, CENA/ 14 C Laboratory, Av. Centenário 303, 13400-000 Piracicaba, São Paulo, Brazil c Federal Institute of Pará, Av. Alm. Barroso, 1155, Marco, 66090-020 Belém, PA, Brazil d Instituto de Geociências e Ciências da Terra, Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho-UNESP, Rio Claro, São Paulo, Brazil e University of São Paulo, CENA/Stable Isotopes Laboratory, São Paulo, Brazil ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Anthropocene Drone Global warming Laguncularia ABSTRACT Temperature infuences the global distribution of mangroves, and global warming may be causing a poleward mangrove expansion. Sedimentary features, pollen, and isotopes data from six sediment cores, as well as 14 C datings, indicated a marine transgression during the Holocene, and it contributed to the expansion of tidal fats occupied by saltmarshes. Environmental conditions suitable for mangroves development occurred on the study site during the Holocene, but, according to 210 Pb and 14 C dating, the establishment of mangroves mainly re- presented by Laguncularia trees only began between ~1957 and ~1986 (AD) on the studied tidal fats. Spatial- temporal analysis, based on satellite and drone images, revealed a mangrove expansion of ~10 ha in the study area between 2003 (96.1 ha) and 2019 (106.1 ha). Nowadays, in the study area, saltmarshes, mainly char- acterized by Spartina and Acrostichum, are sharing tidal fats with mangroves, represented by Laguncularia (≤5 m tall) and Avicennia (≤11 m tall). Probably, the absence of mangroves during the Holocene, followed by their establishment and expansion during the Anthropocene in the subtropical zone, is associated with a migration of the austral mangrove limit into the temperate zone, caused by the gradual increase in winter temperatures. This process may be related to a poleward mangrove migration since the late Holocene, caused by a natural Holocene global warming. However, the industrial-era warming must have intensifed the mangrove expansion into temperate zones. 1. Introduction Global warming has been controversial during the last decades, mainly about human infuence on climate (Keller, 2003). However, stronger recent warming trends indicated that human infuence is dominant in long-term warming (Medhaug et al., 2017). For instance, human-induced warming reached approximately 1 °C above pre-in- dustrial levels in 2017, increasing at 0.2 °C per decade (Allen et al., 2018), and minimum temperatures globally are rising at twice the rate of maximum temperatures (Easterling et al., 2000; Walther et al., 2002). Global warming is causing a poleward migration of isotherms at rates averaging 27 km/decade (Burrows et al., 2011), and pushing tropical species to become more abundant in temperate areas (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Poloczanska et al., 2013), for instance, plants (Sturm et al., 2001; Van Grunsven et al., 2010), butterfy species (Parmesan et al., 1999), birds (Thomas and Lennon, 1999) and modern corals (Yamano et al., 2011) have advanced poleward. In this context, mangroves may also be used as indicators of climate change (Alongi, 2008; Blasco et al., 1996; Fromard et al., 2004), since they are strongly susceptible to cold temperatures. For this reason, mangroves are restricted to latitudes where the coldest monthly mean temperature is above 20 °C, and the annual thermal amplitude is less than 5 °C (Chapman, 1976; Giri et al., 2011; Walsh, 1974). Then, cold temperatures have limited the northern and southern limits for man- groves to around 30°N (Kangas et al., 1961) and 28°S (França et al., 2019; Soares et al., 2012). However, saltmarshes are dominated by freeze‐tolerant herbs that are most abundant along temperate and arctic coasts (Ibáñez et al., 2012). Probably, under global warming infuence, mangroves will migrate to higher latitudes, replacing salt marsh (Field, 1995; Gilman et al., 2008; Woodrofe and Grindrod, 1991). Mangrove contraction and expansion in North America occurred during the Quaternary in response to changes in temperatures (Osland https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2020.104775 Received 13 February 2020; Received in revised form 8 June 2020; Accepted 28 June 2020 ⁎ Corresponding author at: Federal University of Pará – Brazil, Rua Augusto Corrêa, 01 – Guamá, CEP 66075-110 Belém, PA, Brazil. E-mail address: mcohen@ufpa.br (M.C.L. Cohen). Catena 195 (2020) 104775 0341-8162/ © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. T