Vol.:(0123456789) Natural Hazards https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-03948-3 1 3 ORIGINAL PAPER Flash food in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro state (Brazil) in 2011: part I—calibration watershed through hydrological SMAP model Marianna Rodrigues Gullo Cavalcante 1  · Priscila da Cunha Luz Barcellos 2  · Marcio Cataldi 2 Received: 2 March 2019 / Accepted: 18 April 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020 Abstract In January 2011, the Mountainous Region of Rio de Janeiro state underwent one of the largest natural hazards in Brazil, afecting more than 300,000 people, causing more than 900 dead and irreparable human losses and enormous economic losses. From a hydrome- teorological point of view, for the prevention of this type of disaster, alert systems are used worldwide, seeking to anticipate these phenomena by issuing warnings to the population, using tools such as hydrometeorological monitoring and modeling. This study evaluated the applicability of the hydrological soil moisture accounting procedure (SMAP) model with daily discretization as a food prevention tool in Brazil. It was done by adjusting sub- watershed parameters in the semiautomatic calibration process, inserting observed data of precipitation and stream fow, as well as evapotranspiration in the calibration of the model, between 2008 and 2010. The model was validated twice, between the years of 2011 and 2013, and during the disaster period. The results show that the efciency coefcient reached in the calibration stage was 1.713, with a relative error of 12% between the calcu- lated and the observed stream fow, and in the validation, the results were 1.401 and 28%, respectively. In the validation of the disaster, the calculated stream fow was overestimated, with an average relative error of 53%. Flash food prevention through the use of the daily SMAP model has shown promise for use in operational centers. Keywords Flash food · Hydrometeorological model · Soil moisture accounting procedure (SMAP) 1 Introduction Natural disasters are a growing concern worldwide, mainly by bringing on serious impacts on the population, such as loss of lives, economic losses and problems related to the envi- ronment. Within the classifcation of natural hazards, 85% of direct losses are the result of * Priscila da Cunha Luz Barcellos luz.priscila@gmail.com Extended author information available on the last page of the article