Vol.:(0123456789)
Journal of Quantitative Economics
https://doi.org/10.1007/s40953-019-00171-1
1 3
ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Time Varying Efciency in Indian Sectors: An Event Study
on Demonetization
Samit Paul
1
© The Indian Econometric Society 2019
Abstract
The study examines the level of inefciency present in three diferent sectors of
India. More specifcally, it applies diferent estimation techniques to measure
the level of efciency across the agriculture, service and manufacturing sectors
by choosing twenty stocks from each of them. Since there are multiple industries
belonging to a particular sector, capturing the intra-industry diferential in their ef-
ciencies is also crucial. Presence of long range dependence and the time-varying
efciency across the industries belonging to diferent sectors have been tested. Then,
the impact of recent macroeconomic event of Demonetization on these industries
have been explored using six event windows. The results confrm that the impact
of this event on the industry returns are mostly negative and signifcant. However,
the magnitude of impact varies across industries depending on the level of demand
uncertainty and their cash dependence. Finally, the robustness of our fndings has
been checked using fxed efect panel regression which further validates the results
of the event study.
Keywords Efciency · Demonetization · Industry · Sector
Introduction
Market inefciency plays a key role in the publicly traded capital markets (Fama
1970, 1991; Rosenberg et al. 1985; Stein 1989). It refers to the most observed
phenomenon that the market takes time to respond to the new information fows.
Conventional wisdom suggests that emerging markets sufer more from this mar-
ket inefciency (Barua and Raghunathan 1987; Bekaert 1995; Bhattacharya et al.
2000; Mishra et al. 2009; Zunino et al. 2008). In other words, emerging markets do
not react immediately towards new information and respond gradually over a longer
* Samit Paul
samit@iimcal.ac.in
1
Indian Institute of Management, Calcutta, Diamond Harbour Road, Joka, Kolkata,
West Bengal 700104, India