Copyright © 2021, Desimal, Print ISSN: 2613-9073, Online ISSN: 2613-9081 Desimal: Jurnal Matematika Vol 4 No 1 (2021) 79-92 Contents lists available at DJM DESIMAL: JURNAL MATEMATIKA p-ISSN: 2613-9073 (print), e-ISSN: 2613-9081 (online), DOI 10.24042/djm http://ejournal.radenintan.ac.id/index.php/desimal/index El nino index prediction model using quantile mapping approach on sea surface temperature data Sri Nurdiati * , Elis Khatizah, Mohamad Khoirun Najib, Linda Leni Fatmawati IPB University, Indonesia ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Article History Received : 25-11-2020 Revised : 08-03-2021 Accepted : 23-03-2021 Published : 27-03-2021 Keywords: ECMWF, El Nino Index, Quantile Mapping, Statistical Bias Correction. *Correspondence: E-mail: nurdiati@apps.ipb.ac.id Doi: 10.24042/djm.v4i1.7595 El Nino is a global climate phenomenon caused by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino has a powerful effect on the intensity of rainfall in several areas in Indonesia. El Nino impacts can be minimized by predicting the El Nino index from the sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 area. Therefore, many researchers have tried to predict sea surface temperature, and many prediction data are available, one of which is ECMWF. But, in reality, the ECMWF data still contains systematic errors or bias towards the observations. Consequently, El Nino predictions using ECMWF data are less accurate. For that reason, this study aims to correct the ECMWF data in the Nino 3.4 area using statistical bias correction with a quantile mapping approach. This method uses ECMWF data from 1983-2012 as training data and 2013-2018 as testing data. For this case, the results showed that 60% of El Nino's predictions on the testing data had improved the mean value. Also, all of El Nino's predictions on the testing data have improved the standard deviation value. Moreover, data testing's expected error can be corrected for all months in the 1st to 4th lead times. But, in the 5th to 7th lead times, only November-June can be corrected. http://ejournal.radenintan.ac.id/index.php/desimal/index INTRODUCTION Indonesia is a country with a lot of natural resources. But, the environmental damage in Indonesia is relatively high. One of them is caused by climate change. Climate change is already having visible effects on the world. The Earth is warming, rainfall patterns are changing, and sea levels are rising. These changes can increase the risk of floods, droughts, heatwaves, and fires. Indonesia's climate conditions are influenced by conditions of sea surface temperature, both in the Pacific and Indian Ocean (including local SST in Indonesian seas) (Aldrian & Susanto, 2003). The climatic conditions in the Pacific Ocean are known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the climatic conditions in the Indian Ocean are known as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).