Research Article
The Comparison of Grey System and the Verhulst Model for
Rainfall and Water in Dam Prediction
Chalermchai Puripat and Sukuman Sarikavanij
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, King Mongkut’s University of Technology onburi (KMUTT),
Bangkok 10140, ailand
Correspondence should be addressed to Sukuman Sarikavanij; sukuman@hotmail.com
Received 6 November 2017; Revised 12 April 2018; Accepted 10 May 2018; Published 4 September 2018
Academic Editor: Yanbo Huang
Copyright © 2018 Chalermchai Puripat and Sukuman Sarikavanij. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative
Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the
original work is properly cited.
Atimeseriesofdataofrainfallinailandbetweentheyears2005and2015wasemployedtopredictpossiblefuturerainfallbasedon
JulongDeng’sgreysystemstheoryandthegreyVerhulstmodeltoseewhichmodelcanpredictmoreaccuratelywithuncertainand
limiteddata.Firstly,therainfalldatawerearrangedtodisplaytheoverallpatternsofrainfallvolumealongwithitsfrequencyaswellas
the temperature during ailand’s rainy seasons. is makes it possible to see the cycle of rainfall, which is too long for people to
intuitively understand the nature of precipitation. One puzzling phenomenon that has made rainfall forecast elusive is the un-
predictabilityofthehaphazardnatureofrainfallinailand.Amoreprecisepredictionwouldcertainlyresultinabettercontrolof
water volume in rivers and dams for fruitful agricultural business and adequate human consumption. is can also prevent the
flooding that can devastate the economy and transportation of the whole country and also tremendously improve the future water
managementpolicyinmanyways.iseffectivepredictioncouldalsobeemployedelsewherearoundtheglobeforsimilarbenefits.
Hence, the grey systems theory and the grey Verhulst model are juxtaposed to determine a better prediction possible.
1. Introduction
Waterisextremelyimportanttoailand’sagricultureaswell
as people largely because the country’s physical terrain is
rather flat and consequently appropriate for agriculture while
thedenselypopulatedcitiesrequireamplesupplyofwaterfor
daily use and consumption. Such needs for water would not
have been a serious problem if there had been adequate
reservoirs and means to conserve rain water for later uses.
Whathasexacerbatedtheproblemsisthehaphazardnatureof
precipitation patterns during the rainy seasons. Such un-
certainty results in prolonged droughts and severe floods.
Fortunately, to relieve his people’s suffering from having too
much or too little water, the late King Bhumibol Adulyadej
initiatedvariousRoyalprojectsofwaterresourcedevelopment
and management. Some examples are water resources de-
velopment at Huay Hong Krai National Park, Doi Saket, and
Huay Jo Reservoir, Chiang Mai; drainage projects from
lowland and swamp areas of Bacho, Bacho, Narathiwat;
building water reservoirs in strategic regions of ailand, for
instancePaSakRiverDam;andfloodreliefprojectsinLopburi
and Saraburi. e king had also invented a method to resolve
water shortage problems in other ways such as the cloud
seeding procedure for artificial rains [1].
With technological and theoretical advances in science and
mathematics during this decade, however, the outlook of
rainfall prediction has been improved. Beginning in 1982,
Professor Julong Deng’s grey systems theory [2] has attracted
worldwide attention of researchers and has been utilized in
diversified fields of study such as natural science, engineering
science, and many others [3]. Grey systems theory focuses
mainly on systems that have partially known and unknown
information. Other solutions similar to grey systems were
initiated through technological progression. Solutions to un-
certain systems have become a challenge for further develop-
mentinanyassociatedfields.However,onepossiblemeanscan
be provided by different variations of grey systems theory [4].
GM(1,1) model is an important model in grey models family.
Hindawi
Advances in Meteorology
Volume 2018, Article ID 7169130, 11 pages
https://doi.org/10.1155/2018/7169130