Climate Risk Management 30 (2020) 100255 Available online 2 November 2020 2212-0963/© 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Feedback modelling of the impacts of drought: A case study in coffee production systems in Viet Nam Yen Pham a, b, * , Kathryn Reardon-Smith c , Shahbaz Mushtaq c , Ravinesh C. Deo d a Faculty of Health, Engineering and Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfeld Central, QLD 4300, Australia b Department of Climate Change, Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ha Noi, Viet Nam c Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD 4350, Australia d School of Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Springfeld Central, QLD 4300, Australia A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: System dynamics Causal loop diagram Conceptual modelling Feedback loops Mental models Stakeholder engagement ABSTRACT Drought is a major cause of crop failure and livelihood insecurity, affecting millions of people across the world. A changing climate, increasing population and economic growth are exacer- bating water shortages, further interrupting agricultural production. Assessing and minimizing the impacts of drought require a thorough understanding of the interrelationships and in- teractions between the climate system, ecosystems and human systems. In this paper, we apply causal loop modelling grounded in systems thinking theory to examine the interdependencies and feedback processes among factors associated with drought that impact crop production using a case study of Robusta coffee production systems in Viet Nam – the world’s second-largest coffee producing country. Our model, underpinned by qualitative data from consultation with a range of stakeholders, indicates that water depletion affecting coffee cultivation is not solely attributed to rainfall insuffciency but an outcome of complex interactions between climate and socio- economic systems. Our analysis highlights that uncontrollable coffee expansion, largely at the expense of forested areas, is partly the unintended consequence of policy decisions, including those encouraging migration and perennial crop development. Growing water demand in the region, including the demand for irrigation water driven by the ever-increasing area under coffee cultivation, as well as ineffcient irrigation practices are placing signifcant pressure on water resources. A changing climate may exacerbate the problem, further impacting coffee cultivation, unless adaptation practices occur. A number of potential interventions are suggested, including explicit zoning of coffee-growing areas; awareness raising for wide adoption of optimal irrigation practices; converting Robusta coffee monocultures to diversifed systems; and strictly protecting existing forests coupled with afforestation and reforestation. These interventions should be simultaneously implemented in order to adequately address drought and water scarcity for coffee production and build resilience to climate and market risks. 1. Introduction Drought is one of the major causes of crop failure and livelihood insecurity, affecting millions of people across the world each year. Declining crop yields and livestock productivity coupled with rising production costs as a result of drought cause revenue shortfalls for * Corresponding author. E-mail address: Yen.Pham@usq.edu.au (Y. Pham). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Climate Risk Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/crm https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100255 Received 15 February 2020; Received in revised form 1 October 2020; Accepted 27 October 2020 brought to you by CORE View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk provided by University of Southern Queensland ePrints