Cambridge University Press 978-1-107-07213-8 — Ecology and Conservation of Forest Birds Edited by Grzegorz Mikusiński , Jean-Michel Roberge , Robert Fuller More Information www.cambridge.org © Cambridge University Press 11 Population Trends and Conservation Status of Forest Birds ALEKSI LEHIKOINEN AND RAIMO VIRKKALA 11.1 Introduction Bird populations can have large temporal variations both in the short term, from year to year, and in the long term, producing trends. The exact reason behind these temporal variations often remains unclear, although there are several suggestions as to the cause of the temporal patterns (Wiens 1989; Newton 1998; Eglington & Pearce-Higgins 2012; Ram et al. 2017). Environmental variation, such as differences in weather conditions and food availability, has a profound effect on birds (Newton 1998; Møller et al. 2010). A high proportion of the bird species in Europe are migratory, particularly in temperate and boreal areas, so many birds are affected by environmental variation over extremely large areas of the planet (Newton 2008). Long-distance migrants that breed in the Northern Hemisphere meet environmental variation in three areas: the breeding areas, migratory areas and wintering areas in the tropics. As a classic example, the numbers of the common whitethroat Sylvia communis collapsed in Britain in the late 1960s and early 1970s as a consequence of extreme drought in the Sahel region of Africa, the main wintering area of the species (Winstanley et al. 1974; Batten & Marchant 1977). Similarly, in North America, survival and breeding success of American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla are inuenced by cli- matic conditions in the wintering grounds (Norris et al. 2004; Marra et al. 2015). Many of the recent population changes of forest birds are connected with large-scale habitat alteration caused by human activities (Butchart et al. 2010; Hoffman et al. 2010) and the effects of climate change (Crick 2004; Gregory et al. 2009; Jiguet et al. 2010). Although climate change Aleksi Lehikoinen