The relationship between recent gasoline price fluctuations and transit ridership in major US cities Bradley W. Lane * Department of Geography, Indiana University, SB 120, 701 E. Kirkwood Ave., Bloomington, IN 47404, USA article info Keywords: Public transportation Fuel Cost Mode choice Urban areas abstract The unprecedented increase in gasoline costs between August 2005 and July 2008 has become a major public issue in the US. Of the contentions and potential solutions surrounding higher gasoline costs, one receiving relatively little attention has been the role of public transit. This research examines that question by analyzing the relationship between gasoline prices and transit ridership from January 2002 to April 2008 in nine major US cities. Regression analysis is used to assess the degree to which var- iability in rail and bus transit ridership is attributable to gasoline costs and fluctuations in gasoline cost, controlling for service changes, seasonality, and inherent trending. The results indicate that a small but statistically significant amount of ridership fluctuation is due to changes in gasoline prices. The results are discussed in light of the policy and practical implications of higher gasoline prices for mass transit and the potential for long term changes in US travel behavior. Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction The dramatic increase in gasoline costs for consumers begin- ning with the Hurricane Katrina disaster in August 2005 has brought significant public attention toward US travel behavior. One relatively unexplored direction of how travel behavior changes with fluctuating gasoline prices is the effect on mass tran- sit. There have been numerous reports (e.g., APTA, 2005, 2006a,b,c) of city transit agencies experiencing increases in ridership, in addi- tion to the anecdotal claims of media outlets (e.g., Hagenbaugh, 2002 and Sallee, 2006) that people are eschewing driving and in- stead seeking out the nearest bus or rail route. However, media outlets (e.g., Krauss, 2007) have also reported the lack of a response on the part of most US citizens to decrease their driving, instead choosing other options such as shifting money in household bud- gets away from other expenses to maintain their travel behavior, or improving the efficiency of their automobile trip making. Understanding the potential of mass transit to absorb displaced auto travel is potentially critical, yet there is relatively little recent research into this topic. In this research, previous work examining the role of gasoline prices and transit patronage is reviewed, and then a methodology is proposed for analyzing monthly ridership totals and monthly average gas prices for nine US cities. Fluctua- tions in gas prices between January 2002 and April 2008 are ana- lyzed against transit ridership over the same period. Regression analysis is used to model ridership as a function of monthly aver- age fuel prices and variability in monthly fuel costs, as well as monthly service characteristics, seasonality, and time. All transit modes are examined, as well as bus and rail independently. The re- sults are discussed in light of their implications for travel behavior in the present, as well as effects on policy and for travel in the future. 2. Relevant studies There have been several survey and qualitative policy studies that examined the potential travel response to changes in gasoline pricing. Most of the quantitative research stems from modeling the effect of gasoline rationing, allocation plans, and price changes dur- ing the oil crises of the 1970s on transport, and included in some of that research is the role transit can and should play. Other studies have researched the role of gas prices as one of many characteris- tics in predicting ridership. Recent studies discuss transit ridership in the broader context of traveler responses to various road pricing schemes, including increasing the cost of gasoline. 2.1. Research into potential responses to gasoline prices Some researchers such as Litman (2005a, 2005b) argue that an integral component of transport sustainability has to be increasing the cost of driving, and specifically the cost of gasoline. Higher gas- oline costs in the form of taxes would encourage the use of more sustainable modes of travel and increase efficiency in consumer driving behavior. It could also simultaneously increase revenues available for investment in the infrastructure necessary for travel 0966-6923/$ - see front matter Ó 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2009.04.002 * Tel.: +1 812 219 8417; fax: +1 812 855 1661. E-mail address: bwlane@indiana.edu Journal of Transport Geography 18 (2010) 214–225 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Transport Geography journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jtrangeo