1 Brazilian Unified Health System - the first 30 years and prospects for the future: modelling study Marcia C. Castro, PhD 1 , Adriano Massuda, PhD 1 , Gisele Almeida, DrPH 2 , Naercio Aquino Menezes-Filho, PhD 3 , Monica Viegas Andrade, PhD 4 , Kenya Valéria Micaela de Souza Noronha, PhD 4 , Rudi Rocha, PhD 5 , James Macinko, PhD 6 , Thomas Hone, PhD 7 , Renato Tasca, MD 8 , Ligia Giovanella, PhD 9 , Ana Maria Malik, PhD 10 , Heitor Werneck, DrPH 11 , Luiz Augusto Fachini 12 , Rifat Atun, FRCP 1* 1 Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Department of Global Health and Population, 665 Huntington Avenue, Boston, MA 02115, United States of America 2 Pan American Health Organization/Regional Office of the World Health Organization, PAHO/WHO, 525 23 rd Street, NW, Washington, DC 20037, United States of America 3 Insper, Rua Quatá 300, Vila Olímpia, São Paulo, SP, 04546-042, Brazil 4 Center for Development and Regional Planning, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Avenida Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6627. Belo Horizonte, MG, 31270-901, Brazil 5 São Paulo School of Business Administration, Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), Rua Itapeva 474, 11º Andar/PAE, Bela Vista, São Paulo, SP, 01332-000, Brazil 6 UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, 650 Charles E. Young Dr. South, Center for Health Sciences, Los Angeles, CA 90095- 1772, United States of America 7 Department of Primary Care and Public Health, Imperial College London, Reynold’s Building, St Dunstan’s Road, Charing Cross Hospital, London, W6 8RP, UK 8 Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Setor de Embaixadas Norte, lote 19, Brasília, DF, 70.800-400, Brazil 9 Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública Sergio Arouca, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Rua Leopoldo Bulhões 1480, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 21041-210, Brasil 10 São Paulo School of Business Administration (EAESP), Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV), 11º (FGVsaude), Avenida 9 de Julho 2029, São Paulo, SP, 01313-902, Brazil 11 Agência Nacional de Saúde Suplementar (ANS), Avenida Augusto Severo 84, Glória, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, 20021-040, Brazil 12 Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Avenia Duque de Caxias 250, Pelotas, RS, 96030-001, Brazil * Corresponding author Manuscript