European Journal of Economic Studies, 2014, Vol.(9), № 3
135
Copyright © 2014 by Academic Publishing House Researcher
Published in the Russian Federation
European Journal of Economic Studies
Has been issued since 2012.
ISSN: 2304-9669
E-ISSN: 2305-6282
Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 135-142, 2014
DOI: 10.13187/es.2014.3.135
www.ejournal2.com
UDC 33
Testing Relationship between Inflation, M2 (Broad Money)
and Private Sector Credit in Pakistan
1
Zeeshan Fareed
2
Muhammad Awais Baloch
3
Rab Nawaz Lodhi
4
Farrukh Shahzad
5
Bushra Zulfiqar
1
MS Scholar, COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, Sahiwal, Pakistan
Email: zeeshanfareed@hotmail.com
2
PhD Scholar, University of Management and Technology, Lahore, Pakistan
Email: balochmetro@yahoo.com
3
PhD Scholar, Bahria University Islamabad, Pakistan
Email: rabnawazlodhi@yahoo.com
4
MS Scholar, Lahore Leads University, Lahore, Pakistan
Email: farrukh.hailian@gmail.com
5
M.A Scholar, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Pakistan
Email: bushra_zulfiqar786@hotmail.com
Abstract. This research paper examines the impact of inflation with M2 (broad money) and
private sector credit in Pakistan and helps to forecast inflation and its affect in Pakistan during the
year 1975 to 2008. Inflation is defined as too much money chasing too few goods. Inflation leads to
high prices and that affect all mechanism of the market. The rate of inflation is an important
macroeconomic indicator that can affect the economic growth. Inflation was in lime light
throughout the year, as the rise of global inflation witnessed during the most part of 2008.
This paper finds out that an increase in money supply over long-run results in higher rate of
inflation. Thus it establishes that inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon. The results
indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation. Changes in wheat
support price influence inflation in short-run, but not in long-run. Thus by using data from 1975-
1976 to 2007-2008 period, applying Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests, its finds that the most
important determinants of inflation in 2007-2008 were adaptive expectations private sector credit
and rising import prices whereas fiscal policy‘s contribution to inflation was nominal. Analysis of
price multiplier indicates that increase in wheat procurement prices have relatively small effects on
overall price levels.
Keywords: Inflation; Broad Money; Credit Sector; Pakistan.
Introduction. Inflation is one of the most researched topics in economics because it has
serious implication for growth and income distribution. The monetarists believe that inflation is
essentially a monetary phenomenon and the developing countries are no exception to that rule.
The rate of inflation is an important macroeconomic indicator and one of the key variables most of