Transactions in GIS. 2019;23:745–768. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/tgis
|
745 © 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd
DOI: 10.1111/tgis.12554
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Incorporating sprawl and adjacency measures in
land‐use forecasting model: A case study of Collin
County, TX
Parmanand Sinha
1
| Daniel A. Griffith
2
1
Research Computing Center, University of
Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA
2
School of Economic, Political and Policy
Sciences, The University of Dallas at Texas,
Richardson, TX, USA
Correspondence
Parmanand Sinha, Research Computing
Center, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL
60637, USA.
Email: pnsinha@uchicago.edu
Abstract
Sprawl measures have largely been neglected in land‐use
forecasting models. The current approach for land‐use allo‐
cation using optimization mostly utilizes objective functions
and constraints that are non‐spatial in nature. Application
of spatial constraints could take care of the contiguity and
compactness of land uses and can be utilized to address
urban sprawl. Because a land‐use model is used as an input
to transportation modeling, a better spatial allocation strat‐
egy for more compact land‐use projections will promote
better transportation planning and sustainable develop‐
ment. This study formulates a scenario‐based approach to
normative modeling of urban sprawl. In doing so, it seeks
to improve the land‐use projections by employing a spatial
optimization model with contiguity and compactness con‐
sideration. This study incorporates urban sprawl measures
based on smart growth principles together with a mixed‐use
factor, and adjacency consideration of nearby land uses. The
objective function used in the study maximizes net suita‐
bility based on imposed constraints. These constraints are
based on smart growth principles that enhance walkability
in neighborhoods, promote better health for residents, and
encourage mixed‐use development. The formulated model
has been applied to Collin County, TX, a fast‐developing
suburban county located to the north of the Dallas–Fort
Worth metroplex. The suitability of land cells indicates the
probability of conversion, which is calculated using spatial