Environmental Management DOI 10.1007/s00267-017-0871-y Potential Distribution of Mountain Cloud Forest in Michoacán, Mexico: Prioritization for Conservation in the Context of Landscape Connectivity Camilo A. Correa Ayram 1,4 ● Manuel E. Mendoza 1 ● Andrés Etter 2 ● Diego R. Pérez Salicrup 3 Received: 26 July 2016 / Accepted: 8 April 2017 © Springer Science+Business Media New York 2017 Abstract Landscape connectivity is essential in biodi- versity conservation because of its ability to reduce the effect of habitat fragmentation; furthermore is a key prop- erty in adapting to climate change. Potential distribution models and landscape connectivity studies have increased with regard to their utility to prioritizing areas for con- servation. The objective of this study was to model the potential distribution of Mountain cloud forests in the Transversal Volcanic System, Michoacán and to analyze the role of these areas in maintaining landscape con- nectivity. Potential distribution was modeled for the Mountain cloud forests based on the maximum entropy approach using 95 occurrence points and 17 ecological variables at 30 m spatial resolution. Potential connectivity was then evaluated by using a probability of connectivity index based on graph theory. The percentage of variation (dPCk) was used to identify the individual contribution of each potential area of Mountain cloud forests in overall connectivity. The different ways in which the potential areas of Mountain cloud forests can contribute to con- nectivity were evaluated by using the three fractions derived from dPCk (dPCintrak, dPCfluxk, and dPCconnectork). We determined that 37,567 ha of the TVSMich are optimal for the presence of Mountain cloud forests. The contribution of said area in the maintenance of connectivity was low. The conservation of Mountain cloud forests is indispensable, however, in providing or receiving dispersal flows through TVSMich because of its role as a connector element between another habitat types. The knowledge of the potential capacity of Mountain cloud forests to promote structural and functional landscape connectivity is key in the prioritization of conservation areas. Keywords Cloud forest ● Potential distribution modeling ● Potential connectivity ● Graph theory ● Conservation planning ● México Introduction In a global context, mountain forests play a fundamental role in biodiversity conservation, hydric regulation of large watersheds and carbon storage. For this reason, there is a greater need to conserve remnant areas as an adaptive strategy for mitigating climate change (Spracklen and Righelato 2014). These areas also provide cultural value in terms of esthetic, spiritual and recreation value of great importance in a world increasingly transformed by human activities (Price et al. 2011). In Mexico, the Mountain cloud forests (MCF) are known as “mesophylous mountain forests”, and at a global level * Manuel E. Mendoza mmendoza@ciga.unam.mx 1 Centro Investigaciones en Geografía Ambiental, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro No. 8701, Col. Ex-Hacienda de San José de la Huerta CP, Morelia, Michoacán 58190, Mexico 2 Departamento de Ecología y Territorio, Facultad de Estudios Ambientales y Rurales, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Transversal 4 N° 42-00 piso 8, Bogotá DC, Colombia 3 Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Antigua Carretera a Pátzcuaro No. 8701, Col. ExHacienda de San José de la Huerta CP, Morelia, Michoacán 58190, Mexico 4 Present address: Instituto de Investigación de Recursos Biológicos Alexander von Humboldt, Sede Venado de oro, Bogotá DC, Colombia