Factors influencing growth of horticultural exports in Kenya: a gravity model analysis Evaristus M. Irandu Ó Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature 2018 Abstract Horticultural exports are among the key drivers of economic development in Kenya. Their production either complements that of the Northern Hemisphere on a seasonal basis or provides more cost effective supply of vegetables, flowers and fruits throughout the year. The aim of this paper is to investigate the factors that determine horticultural exports of Kenya using a gravity model analysis. The paper reviews both the theoretical development and empirical application of the gravity model. The research findings will provide more knowledge on the potential ways in which the gravity model can be applied in geographical studies. The results of the study may also assist in trade policy formulation in order ensure that the country’s horticultural export potential is fully exploited to promote national devel- opment. The study analysed data on the value of horticultural exports to the top 10 major trading partners with Kenya. These countries included the UK, and selected members of the European Union. The GDP and population of the two countries and the distance between their capital cities were used in the gravity model analysis. The colonial ties and use of common language were used as dummy variables in the model. Kenya was a former colony of the UK and both countries share a common language. The results reveal that the values of Kenya’s horticultural exports are higher in the European Union. Great Britain’s share of the horticultural exports by value is also significant. Therefore, Kenya should explore ways of improving its trade relations with the countries concerned. Keywords Distance  Gravity model  Horticultural exports  Kenya Introduction According to Pedersen (2002), specialized air cargo traffic was introduced in the developed countries from roughly the 1970s. However, such traffic started in Africa fairly recently. It should be borne in mind that the production of cut flowers, fruits and vegetables was initially intended to utilise excess air freight capacity on the return flight from Africa to Europe. Kenya’s comparative advantage regarding fresh produce has generally stemmed from a combination of physical and economic factors, with their production either complementing that of the Northern Hemisphere on a seasonal basis or providing more cost effective supply of traditional or more exotic vegetables, flowers and fruits throughout the year. Much of the available literature on air transport tends to focus on passenger issues than air cargo, partly because as Al Kaabi (2010) observes, air freight E. M. Irandu (&) Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Nairobi, Box 5207-00200, Nairobi, Kenya e-mail: eirandu@yahoo.com 123 GeoJournal https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-018-9888-x