Journal of Information System and Application Development Volume 1 Number 1 March 2023 page 01-09 https://jurnal.unmer.ac.id/index.php/jisad 1 This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA license. DOI: 10.26905/jisad.v1i1.9865 Analisis prediktif perubahan nilai profit berdasarkan klasifikasi pengguna pada usaha jasa logistik Predictive analysis of profit value changes based on user classification in logistics service businesses Sephia Dwi Arma Putri * , Anis Zubair Program Studi Sistem Informasi, Fakultas Teknologi Informasi, Universitas Merdeka Malang, Indonesia E-mail: *sephiaputri616@gmail.com Abstract. The delivery of logistics services continues to experience a rapid increase in line with the high sales of goods through e-commerce. According to the predetermined standards, each cargo expedition outlet is required to meet the monthly shipment achievement target (tonnage) to avoid fines and an increase in the target rate. This study aims to find out how to anticipate failure to achieve targets, so as to prevent additional operating expenses and profit instability. In this study, quantitative analysis was carried out using two algorithms. The Naïve Bayes algorithm is used to classify service user categories. The results showed that the industrial category contributed greatly to the delivery of cargo expeditions with a total tonnage percentage of 69.33%, while the remaining 30.67% was included in the individual category. Furthermore, the Multiple Linear Regression algorithm is used to predict profit values based on category classes. Predictions were made from October to December which resulted in an increase in profit for the individual category and a decrease in profit for the industrial category. Recommendations that can be made include royalty rewards for customers, brand awareness to attract new customers, as well as business cooperation with MSMEs and other business actors around them. Keywords: logistics services; classification; regression; prediction Abstrak. Pengiriman jasa logistik terus mengalami peningkatan pesat seiring dengan tingginya penjualan barang melalui e-commerce. Menurut standar yang telah ditetapkan, setiap outlet ekspedisi kargo diwajibkan memenuhi target capaian pengiriman bulanan (tonase) untuk menghindari denda dan kenaikan angka target. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui bagaimana mengantisipasi kegagalan ketercapaian target, sehingga dapat mencegah penambahan beban operasional serta ketidakstabilan profit. Pada penelitian ini dilakukan analisis kuantitatif menggunakan dua algoritma. Algoritma Naïve Bayes digunakan untuk mengklasifikasikan kategori pengguna jasa. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kategori industrial berkontribusi besar dalam pengiriman ekspedisi kargo dengan persentase jumlah tonase 69,33%, sedangkan 30,67% sisanya masuk dalam kategori perorangan. Selanjutnya, algoritma Multiple Linear Regression digunakan untuk memprediksi nilai profit berdasarkan kelas kategori. Prediksi dilakukan dari bulan Oktober hingga Desember yang menghasilkan bahwa kenaikan profit akan terjadi pada kategori perorangan dan penurunan profit akan terjadi pada kategori industrial. Rekomendasi yang dapat dilakukan antara lain reward royalty bagi pelanggan, brand awareness untuk menarik pelanggan baru, serta business cooperation bersama UMKM dan pelaku usaha lain di sekitar. Kata kunci: jasa logistik; klasifikasi; regresi; prediksi Submitted: 20-01-2023 | Accepted: 14-02-2023 | Published: 31-03-2023 How to Cite: S. D. A. Putri, A. Zubair, “Analisis prediktif perubahan nilai profit berdasarkan klasifikasi pengguna pada usaha jasa logistik,” Journal of Information System and Application Development, vol. 1, no. 1, March 2023.