Potential Gains in Life Expectancy from Reductions in Leading Causes of Death, Los Angeles County: a Quantitative Approach to Identify Candidate Diseases for Prevention and Burden Disparities Elimination Alex Ho 1 & Heena Hameed 1 & Alice W. Lee 2 & Margaret Shih 1 Received: 27 April 2015 /Revised: 10 July 2015 /Accepted: 6 August 2015 # W. Montague Cobb-NMA Health Institute 2015 Abstract Despite overall gains in life expectancy at birth among Los Angeles County residents, significant disparities persist across population subgroups. The purpose of this study was to quantify the potential sex- and race/ethnicity-specific gains in life expectancy had we been able to fully or partially eliminate the leading causes of death in Los Angeles County. Complete annual life tables for local residents were generated by applying the same method used for the National Center of Health Statistics US life tables published in 1999. Based on 2010 Los Angeles County mortality records, sex- and race/ ethnicity-specific potential gains in life expectancy were cal- culated using scenarios of 10, 20, 50, and 100 % elimination of 12 major causes of death. Coronary heart disease, the lead- ing cause of death, was found to be most impactful on life expectancy. Its hypothetical full elimination would result in life expectancy gains ranging from 2.2 years among white females to 3.7 years among black males. Gains from complete elimination of lung cancer and stroke ranked second, with al- most an additional year of life for each gender. However, marked disparities across racial/ethnic groups were noted from the elimination of several other causes of death, such as homi- cide, from which the gain among black males exceeded 13 times more than their white counterparts. By differentially targeting specific causes of death in disease prevention, not only can findings of this study aid in efficiently narrowing racial/ ethnic disparities, they can also provide a quantitative means to identify and rank priorities in local health policymaking. Keywords Life expectancy . Mortality . Cause of death . Disparities Mathematics Subject Classification 92B15 General biostatistics Introduction Life expectancy has been steadily increasing in the USA, but large racial and ethnic disparities remain [1]. This pattern is reflected in local jurisdictions as well. Los Angeles County, a major metropolitan jurisdiction, has one of the largest and most racially and ethnically diverse populations in the USA. With 88 incorporated cities and 53 unincorporated areas, Los Angeles County is home to over 10 million people, making it the most populous county in the nation [2, 3]. In 2013, the demographic composition of Los Angeles County consisted of approximately 48 % Latino, 28 % white, 15 % Asian/ Native Hawaiian or other Pacific Islander (NHOPI), 9 % black, and 0.2 % American Indian or Alaska Native [3]. Over- all life expectancy at birth for county residents has increased by an average of 0.29 years annually since 1991. More spe- cifically, gains were observed among both genders, and all major racial/ethnic groups. However, these gains have not been equal across groups and substantial disparities in life expectancy have been reported [4]. To further examine these disparities, we looked at life ex- pectancy trends by race/ethnicity from 2000 to 2010. We also generated sex- and race/ethnicity-specific life tables to quantify * Heena Hameed hhameed@ph.lacounty.gov 1 Office of Health Assessment and Epidemiology, Los Angeles County Department of Public Health, 313 North Figueroa Street, Suite 127, Los Angeles, CA 90012, USA 2 Department of Preventive Medicine, Keck School of Medicine of University of Southern California, 1441 Eastlake Avenue, NOR 4417, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA J. Racial and Ethnic Health Disparities DOI 10.1007/s40615-015-0156-1