Journal of Cleaner Production 467 (2024) 142985 Available online 28 June 2024 0959-6526/© 2024 Elsevier Ltd. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies. A novel approach to flood risk assessment: Synergizing with geospatial based MCDM-AHP model, multicollinearity, and sensitivity analysis in the Lower Brahmaputra Floodplain, Assam Pranab Dutta a, * , Sujit Deka b a Department of Geography, Gauhati University, Jalukbari, Assam, India b Department of Geography, Bodoland University, Rangalikhata, Kokrajhar, BTR, Assam, India A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: Multicollinearity Analytical hierarchy process Sensitivity index Multivariate correlation Flood risk Lower Brahmaputra plain ABSTRACT Floods persist as a recurring and daunting peril in the Brahmaputra plain of Assam. Notwithstanding advance- ment, Bongaigaon is a highly flood-afflicted district in the lower part of this region, inflicting significant damage to both lives and property almost every consecutive year. Hence, the delineation of precise and reliable flood risk susceptibility zones within the district constitutes the foremost concern of the study. The present work consid- ered a total of sixteen multi-collinearity free parameters integrating with the GIS- based Multi-Criteria Decision Making-Analytical Hierarchy Process (MCDM-AHP) model for identifying potential flood hazard zones (FHZ), flood vulnerability zones (FVZ), and flood risk zones (FRZ) for the region. The result revealed that over 28% of the district’s total area falls under the high to very high flood risk zone. Srijangram circle covers the highest flood risk zone with 343.19 sq. km. The FHZ map of the district demonstrated reliability exceeding 90% in ROC-AUC and below 40% in MSE and RMSE. Additionally, sensitivity analyses depict the role indicators in the predictive model, placed as a virgin gap for study in the region. Moreover, a multivariate correlation statistic is used to examine the potential risk zones and temporal flood effects on different Revenue Circles (RC), showing R 2 over 0.6 in each category. The robustness of this model manifests sensible findings, aiding in fortifying sustainable flood management strategies to mitigate risks at different levels. Strategies adopted here contain greater po- tential for current as well as future trends in similar domains of research. This study may provide invaluable insights for decision-makers, thinkers, administrators, and developers working in this region. 1. Introduction Natural hazards, such as floods, pose recurring threats to Earth (Cui et al., 2021). They cause widespread repercussions such as agro-economic upheaval, infrastructural damage, settlement displace- ment, and loss of life (Berke, 1995; World Health Organization, WHO, 2003; Rahmati et al., 2016a; Debnath et al., 2017; Ward et al., 2020). This study focuses on the prevalent water-related hazards of floods, a phenomenon escalating globally with adverse impacts on normal life styles and overall development (Stefanidis and Stathis, 2013; Debnath et al., 2023a). Floods, mostly periodic in low-elevated areas, are intrinsic to the hydrological system and become perilous when they jeopardise both life and property (Ghosh and Kar, 2018; Ul Hassan et al., 2019; Debnath et al., 2023a). Despite various factors contributing to flood occurrence, human-induced influences continue to affect both the frequency and intensity of floods (Saha and Agrawal, 2020; Ekmek- cio˘ glu et al., 2021). Flooding inherently determines various hazards levels influenced by the nexus of physical as well as human attributes (Gupta and Dixit, 2022; Mitra et al., 2022). The Ganges-Brahmaputra plain is one of the most flood-sensitive areas and comprises a varied level of flood zones within its mighty boundary (Debnath et al., 2023a; Mitra et al., 2022). The severity of floods globally accounted for 40% of socio-economic devastation. Considering north-eastern states, flooding imposes risks on human society, especially in the lowermost, uppermost, and Barak plains of Assam (Aydin and Sevgi Birincio˘ glu, 2022; Gupta and Dixit, 2022; Mitra et al., 2022). Hence, the essence of a sustainable flood management strategy lies in the precise identification and map- ping of flood risk potential zones (Degiorgis et al., 2012; Radwan et al., 2019; Debnath et al., 2022). Multi-approaches like multi-criteria decision-making, bivariate, and * Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: pranabdutta867@gmail.com (P. Dutta), sujitdeka@gmail.com (S. Deka). Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Cleaner Production journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jclepro https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.142985 Received 6 March 2024; Received in revised form 17 May 2024; Accepted 21 June 2024