Gujarat is the westernmost state of India, having a
1600-km-long sea coast with the Arabian Sea. It is surrounded
by the mountain ranges of the Aravalli, Saputara, and Sahyadri
from the northeast, east, and southeast directions. The Gulf of
Khambhat separates the western peninsula (Saurashtra region)
from the main land, which has alluvial soils. Kutch is the largest
district, having a long stretch of desert area known as the Rann of
Kutch. Climatologically, three main climatic regions exist: arid
in the northwest part, dry sub-humid in the southeast part, and
most of the remaining part is under a semi-arid climate. Based on
rainfall, soil, and cropping patterns, Gujarat has been divided into
eight agroclimatic zones, with Navsari (Zone I), Bharuch (Zone
II), Anand (Zone III), S K Nagar (Zone IV), Bhachau (Zone V),
Taragadia (Zone VI), Junagadh (Zone VII), and Arnej (Zone VIII) as
the zonal headquarters (Fig. 1). Rainfall is highly variable in space
and time, from less than 250mm in some parts of Kutch district to
more than 1500mm in Valsad and Dangs districts (Pandey and Patel
2011). About 90–95 percent of rainfall is confined to a four-month
period (June to September) of the SW monsoon, influenced by the
monsoon currents of the Arabian Sea as well as the Bay of Bengal
branches. The absence and presence of one or both causes dry spells
and heavy rainfall, resulting in the simultaneous occurrence of
droughts in one part of the state and floods in other parts, which
makes the planner’s tasks more difficult.
The soils of the Gujarat state vary in texture and structure due to
variation in their origin and are mainly classified into black soils,
mixed black and red soils, residual sandy soils, alluvial soils, alkaline/
saline soils, laterite soils, desert soils, etc. As a result of variations
in soils and rainfall, a variety of crops are grown in the state. Paddy,
maize, pearl millet, and sorghum are the principal cereal crops,
while groundnut, castor, sesame, and mustard are the oilseed crops.
Invited Articles (Silver Jublee Publication)
Journal of Agrometeorology
ISSN : 0972-1665 (print), 2583-2980 (online)
Vol. No. 25 (2) : 224 - 238 (June- 2023)
DOI : https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v25i2.2151
https://journal.agrimetassociation.org/index.php/jam
Gujarat, being a coastal state, is likely to be impacted by global warming and climate change not only due to sea level rise and salinity ingress
but also due to an increase in the frequency of cyclonic storms and other extreme weather events, causing uncertainty in crop production. An
attempt has therefore been made to understand the climate of Gujarat in the past, present, and future based on the works done at the Department
of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand. Analysis carried out on climatic trends and climatic extremes using past available data from different
stations in Gujarat has been highlighted. Crop simulation models validated with experimental data collected for different crops across Gujarat
state were used to understand the response of crops to climatic variability. The climate change impact studies and adaptation strategies carried
out under the NPCC project have also been highlighted. And lastly, the work done by the author as an emeritus scientist on climate projections
under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for all the districts of Gujarat and their likely impact on selected crops is presented. The results revealed that in
the past, temperatures have shown increasing trends but not reached significant levels except at certain locations at night. Rainfall has also
increased, but marginally. Future temperatures have been projected to increase in different parts of Gujarat under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with
varying magnitudes. Similarly, the rainfall has also been projected to increase, while the sunshine hours are projected to decrease. The ultimate
impact would be a drastic reduction in yields in spite of the increase in CO
2
level, suggesting that the present-day crop varieties would not be
able to sustain crop production levels under a changing climatic scenario.
Key words: Climate change, Climate variability, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, Impact on crops, Climatic extremes
ABSTRACT
VYAS PANDEY
Former Emeritus Scientist (ICAR), and Professor and Head, Department of Agricultural Meteorology, Anand Agricultural University,
Anand 388110, Gujarat
Email: vyask.pandey@gmail.com
Climate variability, trends, projections and their impact on different crops: A case study
of Gujarat, India
Article info - DOI: https://doi.org/10.54386/jam.v25i2.2151
Received: 02 March 2023; Accepted: 19 April 2023; Published online : 25 May 2023
“This work is licensed under Creative Common Attribution-Non Commercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) © Author (s)”