Journal of Seismology 6: 125–134, 2002.
© 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers. Printed in the Netherlands.
125
On the methods to identify clustering properties in sequences of seismic
time-occurrences
L. Telesca
1,∗
, V. Cuomo
1
, V. Lapenna
1
& M. Macchiato
2
1
Istituto di Metodologie Avanzate di Analisi Ambientale,CNR, Tito Scalo (PZ), Italy;
2
Dipartimento di Scienze
Fisiche, Universit` a Federico II, Naples, Italy (
∗
)Author for correspondence: tel: +39-971-427206, fax: +39-971-
427222, e-mail: ltelesca@imaaa.pz.cnr.it)
Received 4 July 2000; accepted in revised form 18 May 2001
Key words: clustering, fractal tools, seismicity
Abstract
In recent years there has been deep development in the use of techniques to analyse the statistical properties of
point process time series. Furthermore many efforts have been made to establish robust methods to identify time
clustering structures in the temporal distribution of seismic events. In this paper we intend to give a systematic
review of some common used techniques to characterise the temporal properties of an earthquake sequence; we
also present new methods, commonly used in other scientific fields, to reveal time clustering structures in a seismic
sequence and to clearly identify non-poissonian behaviours at different time scales. An application of these methods
has been performed on the seismicity of Irpinia-Basilicata area (Southern Italy).
Introduction
Understanding the time dynamics of a seismic pro-
cess is one of the fundamental problem in seismology.
This problem is strictly connected to seismic hazard
analysis (Boschi et al., 1995): knowing the statistical
distribution ruling event occurrence improves the cap-
ability of reliably evaluating the probability of future
earthquake occurrences. The seismic activity model-
ing has been performed using several distributions,
among which the poissonian distribution was the most
extensively used, since, in many cases, for large events
a simple discrete Poisson distribution provides a close
fit. But it is well known that earthquake occurrence
exhibits a strong degree of correlation between events
of the same sequence. Omori (1895) and successively
Utsu (1970) observed that the number of aftershocks
decreases in time as a power-law (t+c)
−p
, with p lar-
ger than 1.0. Kagan and Jackson (1991) showed that
earthquake sequences are characterised by time clus-
tering properties with both short and long time scales.
The temporal clustering of the seismic sequences is
widely observed in many seismic catalogues (Smal-
ley et al., 1987; Kagan and Jackson, 1991; Bodri,
1993; Trifu and Radulian, 1994; Bittner et al., 1996;
Lapenna et al.; 1998a; Lapenna et al., 1998b; Telesca
et al. 1999).
Several methods have been used to evidence time
clustering properties of earthquake sequences. An ex-
tensively used method to identify clustered or pois-
sonian behaviours in earthquake occurrence time se-
quences is the coefficient of variation (C
V
) of earth-
quake interevent time (τ ) as a ratio of the standard
deviation (σ
τ
) to the average time (<τ>); a com-
pletely random Poisson occurrence has a coefficient
of variation equal to one, while it is larger than one
for clustered earthquakes (Davis et al., 1989; Kagan
and Jackson, 1991; Boschi et al., 1995). Fractal and
multifractal approaches have been developed to re-
veal time clustering properties of seismic sequences
by means of the estimation of the fractal dimension
of earthquake interoccurrence time sequences, using
the correlation integral method (Godano et al., 1997;
De Rubeis et al., 1997); the slope (D
t
) of the correla-
tion integral of time distribution of earthquakes versus
the interevent time in log-log scales gives information
about the nature of the seismic process: a low value
of D
t
means that events are very clustered. Regarding