DOE Hydrogen Program FY 2005 Progress Report 30 III.3 HyTrans Model Development David L. Greene Oak Ridge National Laboratory National Transportation Research Center 2360 Cherahala Blvd. Knoxville, TN 37932 Phone: (865) 946-1310; Fax: (865) 946-1311; E-mail: dlgreene@ornl.gov DOE Technology Development Manager: Fred Joseck Phone: (202) 586-7932; Fax: (202) 586-9811; E-mail: Fred.Joseck@ee.doe.gov Subcontractor: Strata-G, Knoxville, TN Start Date: October 1, 2005 Projected End Date: September 30, 2007 Objectives • Develop, document and demonstrate a market-based model of the transition to hydrogen-powered highway transportation. • Create plausible scenarios of the transition to hydrogen-powered transportation vehicles. • Estimate the public and private benefits and costs of achieving the program goals set by the DOE Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies (HFCIT) Program and FreedomCAR. • Validate HyTrans as a tool for hydrogen transition modeling, technology assessment, policy analysis and program evaluation. Technical Barriers This project addresses the following technical barriers from the Systems Analysis section of the Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies Program Multi-Year Research, Development and Demonstration Plan: • E. “Lack of Understanding of the Transition of a Hydrocarbon-Based Economy to a Hydrogen-Based economy.” The HyTrans model simulates market-based transitions from the conventional petroleum- based light-duty vehicle transportation system to a hydrogen-based system. It will make an important contribution to understanding the economics of the transition and the roles that technological advances and policies can play in enabling and facilitating the transition. • C. “Lack of a Macro-System Model.” HyTrans will be linked to the Macro-Systems Model currently being designed. HyTrans will be one component of this larger, more complex model. • D. “Stove-Piped/Siloed Analytical Capabilities.” HyTrans already links to several key models (e.g., GREET, H2A hydrogen production models, NEMS) and is in the process of establishing other linkages (e.g., PSAT, ASCM, H2A Delivery Systems and Components, EERE MARKAL). These linkages to models and the working relationships with analysts that we are creating along with the linkages will contribute to the integration of analytical resources across different facets of the infrastructure and help to integrate infrastructure analysis with hydrogen demand analysis.