Renewable fuels e A comparative assessment from economic, energetic and ecological point-of-view up to 2050 in EU-countries Amela Ajanovic * Vienna University of Technology, Energy Economics Group, Gusshaustr. 25-29/370-2,1040 Vienna, Austria article info Article history: Received 17 August 2012 Accepted 9 June 2013 Available online 13 July 2013 Keywords: Renewable fuels Transport Scenarios 2050 Economics abstract Fuels based on renewable energy sources (RES) such as a variety of first and second generation biofuels as well as electricity and hydrogen from RES, are considered an important means of coping with the environmental problems of transport. The objective of this paper is to investigate the “renewable fuels” from economic, energetic and ecological perspective within a dynamic framework until 2050. The key results show that all fuels analysed have lower CO 2 emissions than gasoline, but drawbacks include the high costs of hydrogen- and electricity-driven vehicles. By 2050 however these costs could be reduced due to technological learning effects and efficient policy measures (e.g. CO 2 -based tax). We conclude that “renewable fuels” will only play a significant role if CO 2 taxes, intensified R&D and tech- nological learning are strategically implemented. Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction In recent years the major challenges for EU climate and energy policy have been to implement effective policies and measures to mitigate global warming, improve air quality and reduce energy consumption. Since about one quarter of EU greenhouse gas emissions comes from the transport sector, a significant number of EU measures for reducing CO 2 emissions are directed to this sector with renewable fuels playing an important role. According to EU “20e20e20 targets”, by 2020 at least 10% of fuels used in transport should come from RES [1,2]. Transport is the fastest growing sector in terms of energy use. It plays a central role in the European economy and accounts for almost 20% of the total gross energy consumption in Europe. 98% of the energy consumed in this sector is fossil energy [3]. The Euro- pean Commission has recognized this problem, see e.g. a White paper "Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area e Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system”, [4]. How this will develop in the future depends on technological progress and policy measures implemented. The environmental, economic and energetic benefits of alternative fuels have been discussed in numerous scientific papers. Important contribution to literature have been provided by Huo et al. [5] who focus on a life- cycle assessment of energy use and GHG emissions from biodiesel. The environmental, economic and energetic benefits of biodiesel and bioethanol are discussed by Hill et al. [6]. Hydrogen as a renewable fuel for a transport is analysed by Specht et al. [7] and Ajanovic [8]. Biofuels have been compared with electricity and hydrogen from biomass by Ohlrogge et al. [9] and Campbell et al. [10]. In this paper we analyse and compare all relevant renewable fuels, biofuels and RES-based electricity and hydrogen. The most important renewable fuels in the EU today are the first generation biofuels, biodiesel and bioethanol. They are however, often criticized due to the relatively bad ecological performance and their competition with food production. Currently there are higher expectations of second generation biofuels which can be produced using different kind of lignocellulosic materials, as well as from RES-based electricity and hydrogen. The objective of this paper is to investigate the “renewable fuels” from economic, energetic and ecological points of view in a dynamic framework until 2050 in EU-countries. A comparison has been con- ducted of selected fuels, as well as of total energy service provided by these fuels, (see Fig. 1). The three categories of “renewable” fuels investigated are: biofuels, and RES-based electricity and hydrogen. Biofuels: The following three types of biofuels have been analysed for 2010: - first generation biodiesel produced from rapeseed methyl ester (RME); Abbreviations: FT-Diesel, FischereTropsch diesel; GHG, greenhouse gas; H2, hydrogen; ICE, internal combustion engine; LCA, life cycle assessment; PV, photo- voltaic; RES, renewable energy sources; R&D, research and development; RME, rapeseed methyl ester; SNG, synthetic natural gas; TTW, tank-to-wheel; VAT, value added tax; WTT, well-to-tank; WTW, well-to-wheel. * Tel.: þ43 1 58801 370364; fax: þ 43 1 58801 370397. E-mail address: ajanovic@eeg.tuwien.ac.at. Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect Renewable Energy journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/renene 0960-1481/$ e see front matter Ó 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.06.012 Renewable Energy 60 (2013) 733e738