_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
2204 https://www.id-press.eu/mjms/index
ID Design Press, Skopje, Republic of Macedonia
Open Access Macedonian Journal of Medical Sciences. 2019 Jul 15; 7(13):2204-2207.
https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2019.573
eISSN: 1857-9655
Public Health
Log-Linear Modelling of Effect of Age and Gender on the Spread
of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Lagos State, Nigeria
Oluwole A. Odetunmibi
1*
, Adebowale O. Adejumo
2
, Timothy A. Anake
1
1
Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology, Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria;
2
Department of
Statistics, Faculty of Physical Sciences, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Kwara State, Nigeria
Citation: Odetunmibi OA, Adejumo AO, Anake TA. Log-
Linear Modelling of Effect of Age and Gender on the
Spread of Hepatitis B Virus Infection in Lagos State,
Nigeria. Open Access Maced J Med Sci. 2019 Jul 15;
7(13):2204-2207.
https://doi.org/10.3889/oamjms.2019.573
Keywords: Hepatitis B; Log-linear; Modeling;
Transmission; AIC
*Correspondence: Oluwole A. Odetunmibi. Department
of Mathematics, College of Science and Technology,
Covenant University, Ota, Nigeria. E-mail:
oluwole.odetunmibi@covenantuniversity.edu.ng
Received: 23-Apr-2019; Revised: 24-Jun-2019;
Accepted: 25-Jun-2019; Online first: 13-Jul-2019
Copyright: © 2019 Oluwole A. Odetunmibi, Adebowale
O. Adejumo, Timothy A. Anake. This is an open-access
article distributed under the terms of the Creative
Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International
License (CC BY-NC 4.0)
Funding: This research was financially supported by the
financial support from Covenant University, Nigeria
Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no
competing interests exist
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The effect of age and gender on the transmission of any infectious disease can be of great
important because the age at which the host contact the disease may be a determinant on the rate at which the
disease will spread.
AIM: The purpose of this research is to model the significant effect of age and gender on the spread of hepatitis B
virus using data collected from Lagos State, Nigeria.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: The data that was used for this research is a ten years data covering the period of
2006 to 2015, which was collected from Nigeria Institute of Medical Research (NIMR). A log-linear modelling
approach was employed using R programming language software. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) method of
model selection was used in selecting the best model.
RESULTS: It was discovered from the analysis that both factors (age and gender) have a significant effect on the
spread of hepatitis B infection. This means that the age at which an individual is tested positive to hepatitis B virus
will affect the spread of the disease. In choosing the best model among the four models that were developed,
model AY: GY (age & year: gender and year) was found to be the best model.
CONCLUSION: Age and gender were found to act as a risk influencer that could have a great effect on the
transmission of hepatitis B virus infections in Lagos state, Nigeria.
Introduction
The word hepatitis comes from the Ancient
Greek word hepar (root word heat) meaning 'liver',
and the Latin itis meaning inflammation. Hepatitis,
therefore, means injury to the liver with inflammation
of the liver cells [1], [2].
According to the World Health Organization,
“Hepatitis is an inflammation of the liver. The condition
can be self-limiting or can progress to liver cancer.
Hepatitis viruses are the most common cause of
hepatitis in the world, but other infections, toxic
substances (e.g. alcohol, certain drugs), and
autoimmune diseases may also cause hepatitis”.
It has been discovered from the literature that
there are various types of Hepatitis [3] classified these
various types into five major categories, namely: A, B,
C, D and E, respectively. These viruses are not
related to each other. They differ in their structure, the
way they spread among individuals, the severity of
symptoms they can cause, the way they are treated,
and the outcome of the infection [3]. Among these
categories, the most dangerous is Hepatitis B
because it leads to chronic disease condition in
hundreds of millions of people [4], [5], [6].
Hepatitis B has been described as one of the
major infectious diseases in the world today because
over 750,000 deaths are attributed to it annually [7],
[8], [9]. Hepatitis B infection is a global healthcare
problem with particularly high prevalence in
developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and
South-East/Central Asia. Statistics shows that, about
350-400 million individuals worldwide suffer from
chronic Hepatitis B virus infection which is a dominant
cause of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma
(HCC): [10], [11], [12], [13], [14], [15], [16], [17].