Public Understanding of Science 2015, Vol. 24(8) 970–987 © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav DOI: 10.1177/0963662514553203 pus.sagepub.com P U S Public understanding of cyclone warning in India: Can wind be predicted? Biswanath Dash Tata Institute of Social Science, India Abstract In spite of meteorological warning, many human lives are lost every year to cyclone mainly because vulnerable populations were not evacuated on time to a safe shelter as per recommendation. It raises several questions, most prominently what explains people’s behaviour in the face of such danger from a cyclonic storm? How do people view meteorological advisories issued for cyclone and what role they play in defining the threat? What shapes public response during such a situation? This article based on an ethnographic study carried out in the coastal state of Odisha, India, argues that local public recognising inherent limitations of meteorological warning, fall back on their own system of observation and forecasting. Not only are the contents of cyclone warning understood, its limitations are accommodated and explained. Keywords cognitive polyphasia, cyclone warning, local knowledge, meteorological forecasts 1. Introduction The phenomenon of ‘tropical cyclone’ popularly known as ‘cyclone’ 1 in the North Indian Ocean region provides opportunity to issue public warning because of the duration of time it takes to form at deep sea, its further development to a storm proportion and its movement towards a particular coast. The endangered population are recommended safety action on the basis of warning provided by the meteorological agency. Emergency measures such as public evacuation are declared, and often, state agencies are pressed into service, making repeated announcements, transport arrange- ments, shelter arrangements for evacuees, and so on (see, for example, Lindell and Prater, 2007). Yet, most often the majority of the warned population do not evacuate until they begin to feel the impact of the storm (Aguirre, 1991; Haque and Blair, 1992; Sharma et al., 2009; Thomalla and Schmuck, 2004). People’s reluctance to follow a warning recommendation in the run-up phase creates a situation wherein options for protective action decline on account of the cyclonic storm’s Corresponding author: Biswanath Dash, Jamsetji Tata Centre for Disaster Management, Tata Institute of Social Science, VN Purav Marg, Deonar, Mumbai 400088, India. Email: dashvishy@yahoo.com 553203PUS 0 0 10.1177/0963662514553203Public Understanding of ScienceDash research-article 2014 Article