ARTICLE | OPEN ACCESS Discovery 60, e27d1483 (2024) 1 of 14 Fuel subsidy removal, insecurity, the impact on rising food inflation in Nigeria: A comparative of time series analysis and machine learning techniques Samuel Oweh Abang 1* , Kenneth Onaiwu Arasomwan 2 , Oluwafemi Ayodele 3 ABSTRACT This study made use of a time series and machine learning techniques to examine the impact of fuel subsidy removal, insecurity on food inflation in Nigeria. The scope of the study spans between 1984-2023. A predictive model was developed in other to analyze the impact of fuel subsidy removal on food inflation, while nearing in mind the controlling effect of insecurity. The results of the study show that the removal fuel subsidy removal significantly increases food inflation, while insecurity worsens this effect. Furthermore, the result as presented by the machine learning language indicates that a 10 percent increase in fuel prices will lead to a 5.6 percent increase in food inflation, with insecurity increasing this impact by 2.3 percent. The study hence recommends that government should be concerned on the consequences of removing fuel subsidy while also finding lasting solution to insecurity so as to abate food inflation. Keywords: Fuel subsidy, insecurity, food inflation, vector error correction model 1. INTRODUCTION Nigeria, a country with large pоpulatiоn and grоwing ecоnоmy, adjоurned as Africa's largest ecоnоmy, has struggled with fuel subsidy remоval, insecurity and its pоtential impact оn fооd inflatiоn. The country’s reliance оn fuel subsidies have exacerbated these challenges. In 2020, Nigeria spent approximately ₦1.4 trilliоn (USD 3.7 billiоn) оn fuel subsidies. This accоunted fоr 20% оf the natiоnal budget. Fuel subsidies have been a cоntentiоus issue in Nigeria, with the gоvernment subsidizing fuel price tо keep it lоw. Nevertheless, the country pays a huge sum of money for fuel subsidy. This has been the norm for a very long time (Akinyemi, 2017). This has been a contentious issue on the budget implication of the economy. Discovery To Cite: Abang SO, Arasomwan KO, Ayodele O. Fuel subsidy removal, insecurity, the impact on rising food inflation in Nigeria: A comparative of time series analysis and machine learning techniques. Discovery 2024; 60: e27d1483 doi: https://doi.org/10.54905/disssi.v60i336.e27d1483 Author Affiliation: 1 Ph.D. Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Calabar, Nigeria 2 Ph.D. Base Manager, INTELS (Integrated Logistics Services), Delta Ports, Warri, Delta State, Nigeria 3 Ph.D. Candidate Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Uyo, Nigeria * Corresponding Author Ph.D. Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Calabar, Nigeria Email: abangsamueloweh@gmail.com Peer-Review History Received: 01 August 2024 Reviewed & Revised: 05/August/2024 to 02/November/2024 Accepted: 06 November 2024 Published: 09 November 2024 Peer-Review Model External peer-review was done through double-blind method. Discovery pISSN 2278–5469; eISSN 2278–5450 © The Author(s) 2024. Open Access. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY 4.0)., which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. DISCOVERY SCIENTIFIC SOCIETY