Innovation governance in Poland. Technological trends with an outlook to 2030 Dominik Zieli ´ nski a , Joanna Grudowska a , Piotr Lewandowski b,* a Łukasiewicz Research Network – ITECH Institute of Innovation and Technology, Poland b War Studies University, Łukasiewicz Research Network – ITECH Institute of Innovation and Technology, Poland A R T I C L E INFO Keywords: Innovation governance Trends Foresight Horizon scanning Trend radar New public management ABSTRACT The research problem of the article concerns adapting current innovation governance theories to assess national innovation systems. The operationalization of this task in the Polish context translated into identifying the most promising trends and technological areas for the Polish economy in the 2030 perspective. The study included a horizon scanning and trend radar variant, identifying seven trends: nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, smart grids and energy storage, Food Tech, smart/precision farming, drone technologies, telemedicine, application of hydrogen in steel, and the technological areas included in them. Results were further assessed based on CAWI surveys conducted on a sample of experts representing the Łukasiewicz Research Network. Smart/precision farming, telemedicine, smart grids and Food Tech proved the most promising for the Polish economy. The small difference in results leads us to believe that nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, drone technologies and hydrogen applications in steel production should also be in the spotlight, but special attention should be paid to the accompanying challenges, such as development costs or insufficient R&D infrastructure. The size and scope of the research make it unique and, at the same time, support the significance of the results for Polish technology, economy and science. Introduction Contemporary environmental, political, social and economic chal- lenges, as well as the opportunities that they create, constitute the main axis of inspiration for technological transformations [1,2]. Owing to them, we can search for solutions that will contribute to both risk mitigation and the creation of development opportunities for society and the economy [3].While modern governments strive to overcome the challenges with innovations, different social actors provide their input into how the national innovation strategy should be shaped. Analyzing technological and social trends allows for obtaining desirable and stra- tegic advantages and optimising socio-economic actors’ collective ef- forts. Given the fundamental importance of technological development, trend analysis is crucial for innovation governance. Setting directions for their creation and management is useful for developing national and sectoral innovation strategies. Foresight or forecasting trends studies significantly contribute to the socio-technological environment analysis. This article was created as part of the project "Trendy i wyzwania dla czterech kierunk´ ow działalno´sci Łukasiewicza (Trends and challenges for the four directions of Łukasiewicz’s activity)". It was based on the assumptions above and presents the results of unique research on a Polish scale; it was conducted on a sample of experts from the recently established national research network, Łukasiewicz Research Network 1 (CAWI, N = 91).The article aims to establish a comprehensive meth- odology for accurate trend assessment and test it on a real case by identifying key trends for the Polish economy with an outlook to 2030, which might constitute a competitive advantage in the coming years, thanks to their optimisation potential. The indirect objective is to The article is based on the research and analysis conducted as part of the project "Trendy i wyzwania dla czterech kierunk´ ow działalno´sci Łukasiewicza (Trends and challenges for the four directions of Łukasiewicz’s activity)" (No. 500–3–31–1) from funds for current activity (2022 subsidy) Łukasiewicz Research Network – ITECH Institute of Innovation and Technology. * Corresponding author: Sie´c Badawcza Łukasiewicz – Instytut Organizacji i Zarządzania w Przemy´sle ORGMASZ”, ul. ˙ Zelazna 87 00-879 Warszawa, Poland. E-mail addresses: joanna.grudowska@interia.pl (J. Grudowska), piotr.lewandowski@itech.lukasiewicz.gov.pl (P. Lewandowski). 1 The Łukasiewicz Research Network – an organization of public legal entities established in 2019 to plan and coordinate scientific research and development work conducted by its members. The number of institutes in the network is variable due to the merging of institutes into larger units. In April 2019, the network consisted of 38 institutes, while in 2024, it operated with 22 units. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Sustainable Futures journal homepage: www.sciencedirect.com/journal/sustainable-futures https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sftr.2024.100267 Received 24 May 2023; Received in revised form 31 July 2024; Accepted 9 August 2024 Sustainable Futures 8 (2024) 100267 Available online 13 August 2024 2666-1888/© 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by- nc-nd/4.0/).