International Journal of Innovative Research in Engineering and Management (IJIREM) ISSN (Online): 2350-0557, Volume-11, Issue-5, October 2024 https://doi.org/10.55524/ijirem.2024.11.5.3 Article ID IJIR3017, Pages 16-21 www.ijirem.org Innovative Research Publication 16 Growth of India’s GDP during the Period 1970-71 to 2019-20- An Econometric Analysis Dipankar Pradhan 1 , and Debasish Mondal 2 1 Assistant Professor, Faculty of Management and Commerce, The ICFAI University, Tripura, India 2 Professor, Department of Economics, Vidyasagar University, Midnapore, West Bengal, India Correspondence should be addressed to Dipankar Pradhan; Received: 17 August 2024 Revised: 31 August 2024 Accepted: 13 September 2024 Copyright © 2024 Made Dipankar Pradhan et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. ABSTRACT- This paper estimated the growth, endogenous break, and fluctuation in India’s gross domestic product from 1970–71 to 2019–20. The linear growth estimation method is well established in the existing literature. The estimation of endogenous structural break and fluctuation measuring methods needs some modification and adjustment. The resulting estimates reveal that India's GDP consists of three breaks and four distinct phases in different policy regimes in the considered time interval, of which all four are full-length regimes, two upward spikes, one downward spike were created during the period. The highest growth rate was achieved at 6.54% from 2005-06 to 2019-20. KEYWORDS: Growth, Endogenous Breaks, Fluctuation, Jel Classification: C18, O40 I. INTRODUCTION India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is growing steadily in the post-independence era, although this rate differs across sectors and in different policy regimes. While assessing the country’s economic situation, it is necessary to evaluate both the growth and cyclical nature of the fluctuation of GDP. Economic growth and fluctuations have an impact on a nation's economic performance, the betterment of which is an ultimate goal for human beings, societies, and nations. Growth in time series macroeconomic variables like GDP, sectoral GDP arises from the increasing use of human and physical capital, innovation, natural resources, etc. The growth of GDP may occur with the introduction of different government policies. The fluctuations around the trend linear growth path also arise in all these cases. There are different types of fluctuations that arise, like cyclical, year-to-year, and irregular ones. Fluctuating commodity prices, levels of financial development, trade liberalisation, reliance on agriculture, political stability, foreign resources, domestic shocks, natural disasters, climate conditions, and other types of economic and non-economic factors create different types of fluctuation. Structural breaks occur due to sudden policy changes by the government or policies prescribed to accelerate a structural shift towards a sustainable economic future. The present work considers the fifty-year time period from 1970–71 to 2019–20 to analyse the trend growth in India's GDP, breaks, and fluctuations. Breaks identified through a properly designed methodology are justified by historical data on policy changes, natural calamities, or other unforeseen events. This is expected to have immense policy implications. II. LITERATURE REVIEW Brown, et al.[7] have used recursive residuals to test for structural change over time. Nelson, Plosser [12] argued that most macroeconomic time series are difference-stationary rather than trend-stationary processes. Zivot and Andrews [1] and Perron [13] tests captured only one (the most significant) structural break in each variable with endogenous procedure. Lumsdaine and Papell [11] extended the methodology of Zivot, Andrews [17] to developed a test that allows for two endogenous structural breaks. Bai-Perron [3] allowed inference to be made about the presence of structural change and the number of breaks. Balakrishnan and Parameswaran [5] have estimated multiple structural breaks in time series econometric variables for 10 OECD countries using Bai and Perron [3] [4] and Perron and Zhu [14] methods. Dholakia and Sapre [10] have founded detection of break dates is sensitive to base year changes, marginal extension of time series. Roy-Choudhury, Chatterjee (2014) have used Bai and Perron [3] [4] and Boyce[6] method and further to the consideration of three possible breaks in the series. To estimate fluctuation around the linear growth path, Cuddy-Della Valle[9] suggested an overall fluctuation measuring method on the basis of the de- trend of the coefficient of variation. Coppock’s [8] also suggested a measure of fluctuations in a linear growth path, but this method is different from Cuddy-Della Valle's [9] because this method is based on year-to-year fluctuation. Anjum and Madhulika [2] have tried to find agricultural fluctuation in India using both the Cuddy-Della Valle [9] method and Coppock’s [8] method. III. OBJECTIVE The main objective of this paper is to find the linear growth, multiple structural breaks and fluctuations of India's gross domestic product. During the past 50 years (from 1970–71 to 2019–20), India's GDP have grown steadily. GDP growth is a key pillar of an economy. Proper growth, breaks and fluctuations measures assist policymakers in formulating future policy recommendations.