Proceedings of the 2015 Winter Simulation Conference L. Yilmaz, W. K. V. Chan, I. Moon, T. M. K. Roeder, C. Macal, and M. D. Rossetti, eds. SIMULATING SMOKING BEHAVIORS BASED ON COGNITION-DETERMINED, OPINION-BASED SYSTEM DYNAMICS Asmeret Bier Naugle Nadine Miner Cognitive Sciences & Systems Military & Energy Systems Analysis Sandia National Laboratories PO Box 5800 MS 1327 Sandia National Laboratories PO Box 5800 Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA Munaf Aamir Stephen Verzi Robert Jeffers Resilience & Regulatory Effects Systems Research, Analysis, & Applications Sandia National Laboratories PO Box 5800 Sandia National Laboratories PO Box 5800 Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA Michael Bernard Cognitive Science and Systems Sandia National Laboratories PO Box 5800 Albuquerque, NM 87185, USA ABSTRACT We created a cognition-focused system dynamics model to simulate the dynamics of smoking tendencies based on media influences and communication of opinions. We based this model on the premise that the dynamics of attitudes about smoking can be more deeply understood by combining opinion dynamics with more in-depth psychological models that explicitly explore the root causes of behaviors of interest. Results of the model show the relative effectiveness of two different policies as compared to a baseline: a decrease in advertising spending, and an increase in educational spending. The initial results presented here indicate the utility of this type of simulation for analyzing various policies meant to influence the dynamics of opinions in a population. 1 INTRODUCTION The investigation of health-related behaviors using simulation and analysis is a growing field that integrates behavioral, epidemiological, and computational research. Studies on smoking behavior are of particular interest due to tobacco’s large impact on public health. Smoking is linked to a large number of diseases, and has contributed to at least 20 million premature deaths in the United States since 1964. A variety of government programs have been implemented to reduce smoking rates. These rates have 3892 978-1-4673-9743-8/15/$31.00 ©2015 IEEE