Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Ocean and Coastal Management journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ocecoaman Sinking deeper: The most significant risks impacting the dive tourism industry in the East African Marine Ecoregion D. Dimopoulos * , D. Queiros, C. van Zyl Department of Applied Management, College of Economic and Management Sciences (CEMS), University of South Africa, South Africa ARTICLE INFO Keywords: Blue economy Dive operators Economic risks Environmental risks External risks Marine protected area Marine tourism Political risks Scuba diving industry Social risks ABSTRACT Scuba diving continues to be one of the most popular recreational activities in marine tourism, but its sus- tainability is currently threatened due to environmental, social, political, and economic risks. The East African Marine Ecoregion is renowned for its richness in marine fauna and flora, including some of the Indian Ocean's most diverse and abundant coral reef ecosystems, making it a popular destination for scuba divers. However, empirical evidence suggests that external risks (international and domestic) are impacting on dive operators in the region, creating the need to better understand these impacts. This research was therefore aimed at identi- fying the most significant of these external risks from the perspective of dive operators, via an explorative and descriptive study. The qualitative and quantitative primary data collected revealed that domestic and interna- tional economic and political risks have the greatest impact on dive operators in the East African Marine Ecoregion, and this trend is expected to continue. Environmental degradation of coral reefs, while not seen as a threat to dive operators at present, constitutes a key threat within the near future. In terms of the variation in perceived risk across the region, Kenya suffers most from social and political risks, Tanzania from environmental risks, Mozambique from political risks, and South Africa from economic risks. The research contributes to Africa's Blue Economy, which aims to guide African countries in sustainable use of the marine environment while harnessing its social and economic benefits. The findings create awareness of the impact of external risks on regional dive operators and their significance. Furthermore, they create an opportunity for decision makers and stakeholders in the region to craft solutions to improve the sustainability of the scuba diving industry. 1. Introduction Scuba diving tourism is a form of marine tourism (Orams, 1999) and is considered an economically important industry, as evidenced by the number of locations striving to become scuba diving destinations (Dimmock and Musa, 2015:52) and dive tourism hotspots (Dimopoulos, 2018). This is specifically evident in the coastal tropical and sub-tro- pical regions of developing countries, which are largely dependent on foreign investment through tourism activities (Burke et al., 2011; Spalding et al., 2017). When choosing a dive destination, divers gen- erally seek high-quality coral reef habitats, rich coral and fish diversity, an ocean with high visibility free of pollution and sediment, and resort style retreats (Dimmock, 2003). In the East African Marine Ecoregion (EAME), scuba diving tourism is one of the key components of marine and coral reef tourism (ASCLME, 2012; Orams and Lück, 2014; Spalding et al., 2017). The EAME extends for over 4600 km (Fig. 1) and supports a rich diversity of plant and animal life, including some of the Indian Ocean's most diverse coral reefs and globally significant marine and coastal habitats (Guerreiro et al., 2011; Obura, 2001; Oglethorpe, 2009; WWF, 2015). The geographical scope of this study includes all countries with dive operators that fall within the EAME, namely, the territorial waters of Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, and Sodwana Bay in South Africa (Obura, 2005). While scuba diving continues to be one of the most popular marine recreational activities in marine and coral reef tourism, its future is being threatened as a result of environmental, social, political and economic impacts (Burgoyne et al., 2018; Burke et al., 2011; Canty, 2007; Richmond, 2011). These are referred to as external (exogenous) risks and are divided into domestic and international external risks (Cabrini, 2013). The Blue Economy in the African context includes aquatic and marine spaces, such as oceans, coasts, lakes and rivers. It is an integral part of the African Agenda 2063, aiming at guiding African countries to better mainstream the marine environment into national development plans, policies, strategies and laws (United Nations Economic https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104897 Received 16 January 2019; Received in revised form 19 July 2019; Accepted 19 July 2019 * Corresponding author. E-mail address: 4729714@mylife.unisa.ac.za (D. Dimopoulos). Ocean and Coastal Management xxx (xxxx) xxxx 0964-5691/ © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Please cite this article as: D. Dimopoulos, D. Queiros and C. van Zyl, Ocean and Coastal Management, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2019.104897